RON
IS ON THE ROAD AGAIN ... SO NO NEW UPDATES FOR A FEW DAYS.
I'm heading back to Paris again on Thursday and won't be online
for a day or so. The next update will either be this weekend ...
or Monday (2/18) at the latest. Before you regular readers start
complaining about the frequency of my trips overseas over the
past eleven months, I have some good news for you (and bad for
me): it will be my final trip to France for a while. Dana just
completed his apprenticeship chef work in Paris and we're giving
up the apartment in the 2nd Arrondisement at the end of the month.
But, as I had enough frequent flyer miles to pay for this trip
(and the last one), this was as good of a time as any to spend
two more weeks in Paris. The weather there is sunny and pleasantly
cool these days, so I'm even bringing my rollerblades. FYI:
Check out my France phoro album on my
Facebook page and you'll see why I love spending time there
(plus, the food is great and the wines are amazing). So, until
I get a new update posted, treat this as an open thread.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.14.08 | Permalink
|
WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
OBAMA,
McCAIN SWEEP VIRGINIA, MARYLAND, DC PRIMARIES. P2008 - DEM: Chalk up three more sweeping primary victories
for Barack Obama. He rolled to massive landslide wins over Hillary
Clinton Tuesday in the Virginia, Maryland and District of Columbia
primaries. The results: DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA:
Obama - 76%, Clinton - 24%. MARYLAND: Obama - 60%,
Clinton - 37%. VIRGINIA: Obama - 63%,
Clinton - 36%.
The Virginia exit polling showed Obama widening his base of support.
According to CNN, Obama again won younger voters, blacks and independents
by very lopsided margins -- yet he also narrowly beat Clinton
among seniors, women and blue collar voters. NBC's exit polling
in Maryland showed Obama won a majority of the votes of blacks,
white males, union households, Catholics, and voters in all age
categories. New polls released Tuesday show Obama leading in next
week's Wisconsin primary by
margins ranging from 4-11%. P2008 - GOP: John McCain scored three primary wins Tuesday,
but conservative insurgent Mike Huckabee was encouraged enough
by his showing in Virginia that he is now moving forward to the
Wisconsin primary. McCain is rapidly closing in on the delegate
total needed to clinch the nomination, but it has not stopped
conservatives from casting a significant number of anti-McCain
protest votes in the ongoing contests. The results: DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA:
McCain - 67%, Huckabee - 17%, Paul - 8%. MARYLAND: McCain - 56%,
Huckabee - 29%, Paul - 6%. VIRGINIA: McCain - 50%,
Huckabee - 41%, Paul - 5%.
A new Strategic Vision-R poll of Wisconsin voters shows McCain
leading Huckabee by a 45-27 margin. The Hill reports the
name of former Congressman Rob Portman (R-OH) is already in play
as a possible McCain runningmate. Portman, 52, previously served
as US Trade Representative and later Budget Director under President
George W. Bush. Portman did not deny interest in the VP spot,
but said he was currently more focused running someday for Governor
or US Senator in Ohio.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.13.08 | Permalink
|
CONGRESSMEN
GILCHREST, WYNN DEFEATED IN MARYLAND PRIMARY; GINGRICH WARNS CPAC
THAT CONSERVATIVES FACE "CATASTROPHIC" ELECTION YEAR. MARYLAND: In what could perhaps be an early warning for
incumbents of things to come this year, two veteran Congressmen
were ousted by voters in primaries. In CD-1, nine-term Congressman
Wayne Gilchrest -- a Vietnam War veteran, Iraq War critic and
GOP moderate -- was defeated by conservative State Senator Andy
Harris (R). Harris, a physician and Navy veteran, was backed by
the fiscal conservative Club for Growth group and former Governor
Bob Ehrlich (R). Queen Anne County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil
won the Democratic primary, but he is an underdog in the general
election against Harris. The results: Harris - 44%, Gilchrest
- 32%, State Senator EJ Pipkin - 21%, Others - 3%. In CD-4, eight-term
Congressman Al Wynn (D) was trounced by progressive political
activist and attorney Donna Edwards. The results: Edwards - 60%,
Wynn - 35%, Others - 5%. Edwards -- who came within 3,000 votes
of defeating Wynn in the 2006 primary -- was again backed by the
anti-war MoveOn.org group. Edwards will face Ron Paul campaign
activist Peter James (R) in November, but Edwards is a safe bet
to win the solidly Dem seat. To view all of the primary winners,
see our Maryland page. GINGRICH: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) spoke
to the Conservative Political Action Conference on Tuesday, warning
activists that the Republican Party faces “catastrophic”
results in November unless the GOP quickly changes direction.
"Every person who cares about the conservative movement and
every person who cares about the Republican Party had better stop
and say to themselves: ‘There is something big happening
in this country. We don’t understand it. We’re not
responding to it. And we’re currently not competitive. And
if we want to get to be competitive, we had better change and
we had better change now.' ... Let me make this very clear, I
believe we have to change or expect defeat ... I would rather
have a President McCain that we fight with 20% of the time, than
a President Clinton or a President Obama that we fight with 90%
of the time ... [but] if we run a traditional consultant-dominated
tactical Republican campaign, like we’ve seen in the last
eight years, we will be defeated this fall,” said Gingrich.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.13.08 | Permalink
|
TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
OBAMA,
McCAIN LOOK STRONG FOR POTOMAC PRIMARY DAY (MD, DC, VA). P2008 - DEM: Voters go to the polls in Presidential
primaries on Tuesday in Maryland, Virginia and the District of
Columbia. Independent polls seem to uniformly predict Barack Obama
will defeat Hillary Clinton by wide margins in all three contests.
Likewise, from widespread media reports, Clinton plans to make
her next "firewall" stand against Obama in Texas and
Ohio on March 4 -- although Clinton is reportedly making an effort
to keep Wisconsin competitive on February 19. The problem for
Clinton, however, is her campaign seemingly concedes Obama will
outraise Clinton by a good margin again this month. The Clinton
firewall strategy: she requires wins in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania
(April 22). The Clinton team fears an Obama win in any one of
those three states would place the nomination out of range for
her. Meanwhile, the New York Times is reporting a new story
on Obama's past drug use -- reporting Obama's youthful drug use
claims were possibly exaggerated in his autobiography, as his
actual experiences may be significantly less than he wrote. P2008 - GOP: Although Mike Huckabee is hoping for at least
one more upset on Tuesday -- in any of the three Potomac contests
-- polls show John McCain should win the three contests. In an
added boost for McCain, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and 2000
Presidential hopeful Gary Bauer both endorsed McCain on Monday.
While Bush did not openly support any candidate to date in the
primaries, behind the scenes in Florida nearly all key players
in his organization were involved in the failed Mitt Romney effort.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.12.08 | Permalink
|
CONGRESSMEN
GILCHREST, WYNN IN TOUGH PRIMARIES; CONGRESSMAN SHADEGG RETIRES;
NH US SENATE POLL; CONGRESSMAN LANTOS DIES. MARYLAND: While there are crowded Congressional primaries
throughout the state, only two are worth noting. In CD-1, centrist
Congressman Wayne Gilchrest
(R) -- a folksy Vietnam War veteran and Iraq War critic -- is
facing an aggressive primary challenge from the right. Conservative
State Senators Andy Harris and E.J. Pipkin are the leading challengers,
although two others are also running. Harris, a physician and
Navy veteran, is backed by the Club for Growth and former Governor
Bob Ehrlich. Pipkin, a wealthy businessman, was the GOP nominee
for US Senate in 2004. As Harris and Pipkin appear to be dividing
the same conservative base, the split should allow Gilchrest to
win renomination. The NRCC has been assisting Gilchrest, fearing
a more conservative GOP nominee would be unelectable in November
in this swing district. In CD-4, Congressman Al Wynn (D) is facing
a high competitive rematch from progressive attorney Donna Edwards.
Edwards, who is again backed by MoveOn.org, nearly ousted Wynn
in an upset two years ago. Four other Dems are also running. Wynn
is, at best, a marginal favorite over Edwards in a race most view
as too close to call. One aside: anti-war Ron Paul campaign activists
are running in GOP congressional primaries in five of the state's
eight districts. Click here to view our list
of Maryland candidates. ARIZONA: In a surprise move, seven-term Congressman John
Shadegg (R) on Monday became the 29th GOP House member to announce
his retirement this year. He cited frustrations with trying to
advance a conservative agenda in a Democratic-controlled House
as a major reason for his retirement. "There are better places
for me to fight that fight," said Shadegg. A vocal fiscal
conservative, he finished third in the open contest for House
Majority Leader in 2006. CQ reports Shadegg is giving up
his seat now because he believes it is a good year -- with Arizonan
John McCain at the head of the GOP ticket -- for Republicans to
hold the open seat. CQ reports Shadegg is very interested in running
for McCain's Senate seat if he either is elected President or
retires in 2010. Although attorney Bob Lord (D) had raised over
$600,000 in 2007 for the race, the district still skews heavily
Republican.
Shadegg Chief of Staff Sean Noble (R) is a likely candidate for
the seat. Race rating: GOP Favored. NEW HAMPSHIRE: A new UNH poll shows former Governor Jeanne
Shaheen (D) leading US Senator John Sununu (R) by a vote of 54%
to 37%. CALIFORNIA: US House Foreign Relations Committee Chairman
Tom Lantos (D-CA) died of cancer on Monday. He was 80 years old.
Lantos announced his retirement plans just a month ago, citing
ill health. A Jewish immigrant from Hungary, Lantos was the only
Nazi Holocaust survivor to ever serve in Congress.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.12.08 | Permalink
|
MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
OBAMA
WINS LA, NE, WA AND ME ... AND A GRAMMY; HUCKABEE WINS LA, KS,
McCAIN WINS WA; RON PAUL KINDA QUITS PREZ RACE; MS US SENATE UPDATE. P2008 - DEM: Barack Obama handily defeated
Hillary Clinton in all the contests this weekend in Louisiana,
Nebraska, Washington and Maine. The net result: Obama is now virtually
tied with -- or even ahead of -- Clinton in delegates nationally
by all network counts (and this includes all of the pledged super-delegates
to date). The weekend results: LOUISIANA: Obama - 57%,
Clinton - 36%. NEBRASKA: Obama - 68%,
Clinton - 32%. WASHINGTON: Obama - 68%,
Clinton - 31%. MAINE: Obama - 59%, Clinton
- 41%.
On top of enjoying a winning weekend for elections, Obama also
won the Grammy Award for "Best Spoken Word Album" for
his audio recording of his book The Audacity Of Hope. Obama
was competing against former President Bill Clinton in that same
category. In the aftermath of the recent election results, Clinton
ousted campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle. Her new campaign manager
is Maggie Williams, who served as Clinton's chief of staff when
during her years as First Lady. In other news, John Edwards met
Thursday with Clinton and will meet Monday with Obama. He's speaking
with both before purportedly making a decision on publicly endorsing
one of his two former Dem rivals. P2008 - GOP: Maybe it was buyers' remorse over putative
nominee John McCain. Whatever the cause, underdog Mike Huckabee
scored upset wins this weekend in Louisiana and Kansas, and nearly
toppled McCain in Washington. The results: KANSAS: Huckabee - 60%,
McCain - 24%, Paul - 11%. LOUISIANA: Huckabee -
43%, McCain - 42%, Paul - 5%. WASHINGTON: McCain -
26%, Huckabee - 24%, Paul - 21%.
Huckabee is contesting the Washington outcome -- and threatening
legal action -- claiming there were "obvious irregularities"
in the vote. Huckabee joked over the weekend he studied "miracles"
in college -- not math -- and said he would remain in the race
until McCain formally collects enough delegates to secure the
nomination. He said his campaign is about giving voters "a
choice." The McCain camp is remaining respectful towards
Huckabee, as they don't see him as a serious rival for the nomination.
The Huckabee wins Saturday -- and more possible upsets on Tuesday
-- are merely viewed as minor bumps on the road to McCain's nomination.
President Bush, meanwhile, came to McCain's defense against recent
attacks by some prominent conservatives, telling reporters he
thought McCain was "a true conservative." RON PAUL: Describing it a retooling of his political objectives,
libertarian Congressman
Ron Paul (R-TX) more or less quit the Presidential race on Friday
in an email to supporters. While Paul says he will continue to
"fight on" for President as an official candidate in
all upcoming primaries and caucuses, he acknowledged having "nearly
zero" chance of winning the Presidential nomination. Further,
he announced significant reduction of the size of his national
campaign staff -- moving most of his remaining campaign staffers
to his Congressional district so as to concentrate on his renomination
fight on March 4. "I have constituents in my home district
that I must serve. I cannot and will not let them down. And I
have another battle I must face here as well. If I were to lose
the primary for my congressional seat, all our opponents would
react with glee, and pretend it was a rejection of our ideas.
I cannot and will not let that happen," wrote Paul. Who are
the potentially gleeful opponents? Paul said it was "the
neocons, the warmongers, the socialists, [and] the advocates of
inflation." Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden (R) --
a social conservative and supporter of the Iraq War -- is Paul's
opponent in the GOP congressional primay. Finally, Paul made it
clear he will not be a third party Presidential candidate in November:
"I am committed to fighting for our ideas within the Republican
party, so there will be no third party run. I do not denigrate
third parties -- just the opposite, and I have long worked to
remove the ballot-access restrictions on them. But I am a Republican,
and I will remain a Republican." MISSISSIPPI: The Mississippi Supreme Court last week overturned
a lower court order requiring the US Senate special election to
be held in March 2008. Instead, the Court ruled in favor of Governor
Haley Barbour's interpretation that the special election can be
held in November. Barbour already appointed Congressman Roger
Wicker (R) to serve as the interim US Senator. Former Governor
Ronnie Musgrove (D) and former Congressman Ronnie Shows (D) are
announced candidates against Wicker.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.11.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
The daily open thread.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.11.08 | Permalink
|
SATURDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
FIVE
PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS SET FOR THIS WEEKEND .
There are four Presidential contests on Saturday: Kansas GOP caucuses,
Louisiana primary, Nebraska DEM caucuses, and Washington State
caucuses. Obama is favored to win all three Dem contests. The
Kansas contest could be the most interesting of the day, as the
Kansas Republican Party has been sharply split for many years
between the Evangelical conservative wing and the moderate wing.
The Maine Dem Presidential caucuses are on Sunday.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.09.08 | Permalink
|
FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
ROMNEY
QUITS; CONGRESSWOMAN HOOLEY RETIRES; CLINTON'S CASH VS. OBAMA'S
CASH. P2008 - GOP: Former Massacusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R)
used his speech at the Conservative Political Action Committee
(CPAC) conference in DC on Thursday to unexpectedly quit the Presidential
race. While
rumors of a possible withdrawal had been floating since Tuesday
night, the CPAC audience was clearly surprised and dismayed by
the announcement. Without making any endorsement of McCain, Romney
still made it clear he was stepping aside in favor of McCain.
"If this were only about me, I'd go on. But it's never been
only about me. I entered this race because I love America, and
because I love America, in this time of war I feel I have to now
stand aside for our party and for our country ... I disagree with
Senator McCain on a number of issues, but I agree with him on
doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and
executing Osama bin Laden, and I agree with him on eliminating
al Qaeda and terror worldwide," said Romney. Reacting to
the news, Mike Huckabee quickly positioned himself as the lone
conservative alternative to McCain for the nomination: "I
know that a lot of the establishment, Washington-type folks are
going to be going with Senator McCain ... but the people of this
country need a choice. And right now, I am going to be their choice."
McCain, meanwhile, praised Romney as a loyal Republican and vanquished
rival who had put up a tough fight. Romney reportedly spent more
than $40 million of his own money on the campaign, won the GOP
contests in Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan,
Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming, and
won 269 delegates. He reportedly is already thinking of running
again for President in 2012. OREGON: Six-term Congresswoman Darlene Hooley (D) -- one
of the most liberal House members -- unexpectedly announced Thursday
she will retire this year. Hooley, 68, has served in various public
office for 32 years. "At some point in everybody's life you
have to decide, how much longer do I want to do this? It's time
to move on," she said. Hooley said the current political
climate -- with the Democrats riding high in the polls this year
-- influenced her timing. Her CD-5 seat is a swing district, so
she decided to retire now because "I think it will be easier
to elect a Democrat this year, and I don't know about [what the
political climate will be like in] two years," she told the
Portland Oregonian. Hooley won re-election by a 54-43 vote
in 2006. Candidate filing closes March 11, and both major parties
are likely to see hotly contested primaries.
Race rating: Toss-Up. P2008 - DEMS: Good news for Hillary Clinton's staffers
who, just yesterday, had agreed to keep working this month without
being paid because of campaign financial concerns. In the wake
of that news, Clinton's campaign raised over $7.5 million during
the past eight days -- including $3 million collected online over
the past 24 hours. The news means the Clinton staff will all be
paid this month. By contrast, Barack Obama's campaign announced
it had raised more than $7.5 million online in just the past 36
hours. UPCOMING EVENTS. There are four Presidential contests set
for Saturday: Kansas GOP caucuses, Louisiana primary, Nebraska
DEM caucuses, and Washington State caucuses. Obama is favored
to win all three Dem contests. The Kansas contest could be the
most interesting of the day, as the Kansas Republican Party has
been sharply split for many years between the Evangelical conservative
wing and the moderate wing.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.08.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
The daily open thread.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.08.08 | Permalink
|
THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
CLINTON
CAMPAIGN BROKE, STAFF NOT BEING PAID; DNC CHAIR DEAN SAYS OBAMA,
CLINTON MAY NEED TO "MAKE SOME KIND OF ARRANGEMENT." P2008 - DEMS: The final results for Super Tuesday: Hillary
Clinton - 7.35 million votes versus Barack Obama - 7.3 million
votes ... Obama - 13 states, Clinton - 8 states, Undecided - 1
(New Mexico) ... and
it appears Obama won 4 delegates more than did Clinton this week.
Even including all super-delegates, it appears the two are now
separated by less than 100 delegates. The stunning news of the
day, however, was that revelation that Clinton's campaign is nearly
broke. Clinton lent her campaign $5 million from her own pocket
in the final week of January to keep her campaign on TV in the
final days leading up to the Tuesday vote. Clinton confirmed the
report at a press conference, explaining that Obama had outraised
Clinton 3-to-1 in January and that the campaign needed the cash
to stay competitive. "I loaned the campaign $5 million from
my money ... [because] my opponent was able to raise more money
and we intended to be competitive, and we were," said Clinton.
MSNBC and Time magazine later reported that campaign manager Patti
Solis Doyle and other top Clinton staffers have agreed to work
without pay this month due to the campaign's dire financial problems.
By contrast, The Politico reports Obama is on track to
raise at least $30 million in February. In related news, DNC Chair
Howard Dean told NY1 that a convention fight between Clinton and
Obama is "not a good scenario ... I think we will have a
nominee sometime in the middle of March or April. But if we don't,
then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make
some kind of an arrangement because I don't think we can afford
to have a brokered convention."
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.07.08 | Permalink
|
McCAIN
IS NEAR LOCK FOR NOMINATION; ROMNEY WEIGHS WITHDRAWAL.
John McCain
is well poised now to capture the GOP nomination, as it is simply
approaching near mathematical impossibility for either Mike Huckabee
or Mitt Romney to capture enough delegates to win the nomination.
With their delegates combined -- something that is not going to
happen because of the strong feelings disdain between the two
men -- a single conservative could have an outside shot at the
nomination. But, so long as both remain in the contest, they continue
to split the same social conservative base. Thus, McCain may become
the first candidate to win the GOP nomination in nearly three
decades who was not the candidate favored by the large block of
movement conservatives. The Hill reports Romney met on
Wednesday in DC with his Congressional supporters, telling them
he planned to stay in the race until the convention. CNN reported
that Romney is set to meet with his senior staff "to discuss
the future of the campaign." When asked, Romney spokesman
Kevin Madden said he would neither confirm nor deny the rumors.
As for Congressman Ron Paul, he says he plans to keep running
regardless of his low vote totals and delegate numbers. "If
I dropped out, my supporters wouldn't be happy," said Paul.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.07.08 | Permalink
|
ILLINOIS
CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY RESULTS.
In the CD-14 special
election primary to replace resigned former House Speaker Denny
Hastert (R), wealthy dairy company owner Jim Oberweis defeated
State Senator Chris Lauzen by a 56-44 vote to win the GOP nomination.
Hastert had endorsed Oberweis for the nomination. Scientist Bill
Foster narrowly won the Dem nomination. Oberweis is heavily favored
to defeat Foster in the March 8 special election. No major surprises
in the other Illinois contests on Tuesday. Physician Steve Sauerberg
won the GOP nomination to face US Senator Dick Durbin (D) in November.
In CD-3, centrist Congressman Dan Lipiniski won a surprisingly
easy win over liberal School Board Member Mark Pera by a 54-25
vote, with two others dividing the remainder. In the open CD-11
race, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann romped to a landslide victory
in the GOP primary. State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson
is unopposed for the Dem nomination. In the open CD-18 race to
replace the retiring Congressman Ray LaHood (R), State Representative
Aaron Schock won the GOP primary with 71% against two opponents.
Click here to see all of the Illinois congressional
nominees.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.07.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE: KILL THE SUPER-DELEGATES (CONCEPTUALLY, OF COURSE)! AN EDITORIAL. Let's hope 2008 is the last election cycle
in which we have super-delegates. They were created in the aftermath
of the 1972 race by DNC leaders seeking a mechanism to maintain
control of the party and ensure that movement liberals -- i.e.,
the voters -- could never again bring about another "McGovern-type"
nominee. In related news, Howard Dean is completely wrong in calling
for a backroom deal to be cut in March or April to short-circuit
the remainder of the primary process. Why don't we let the primary
process continue and see if someone can actually win the nomination
without heavy-handed meddling from the DNC leadership? And --
Howard -- perhaps if you and the DNC hadn't sought to disenfranchise
Michigan and Florida with your heavy-handed tactics, you wouldn't
be in this mess today. The point of this rant: It's time to truly
give the Democratic voters -- not the bosses and super-delegates
-- full control of the nomination process.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.07.08 | Permalink
|
WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
Consider
today's posting a nearly comment and analysis-free day -- except
for what you guys provide in the threads -- as the results largely
speak for themselves. Both parties have nomination contests that
are going to continue for at least the next few weeks, and possibly
all the way to the national conventions this summer. Bottom line:
Super Tuesday did almost noting towards clarifying the races.
SUPER
TUESDAY DEM STATE SCORECARD: OBAMA - 14, CLINTON - 8. ALABAMA: Obama - 56%, Clinton - 42%. ALASKA: Obama - 68%, Clinton - 32%. ARIZONA: Clinton - 51%, Obama - 40%. ARKANSAS: Clinton - 72%, Clinton - 24%. CALIFORNIA: Clinton - 52%, Obama - 42%. COLORADO: Obama - 64%, Clinton - 35%. CONNECTICUT: Obama - 51%, Clinton - 47%. DELAWARE: Obama - 53%, Clinton - 42%. GEORGIA: Obama - 63%, Clinton - 34%. IDAHO: Obama - 75%, Clinton - 23%. ILLINOIS: Obama - 65%, Clinton - 33%. KANSAS: Obama - 73%, Clinton - 27%. MASSACHUSETTS: Clinton - 57%, Obama - 40%. MINNESOTA: Obama - 67%, Clinton - 32%. MISSOURI: Obama - 49%, Clinton - 48%. NEW JERSEY: Clinton - 54%, Obama - 44%. NEW MEXICO: Obama - 49%, Clinton - 48%. NEW YORK: Clinton - 57%, Obama - 40%. NORTH DAKOTA: Obama - 61%, Clinton - 37%. OKLAHOMA: Clinton - 55%, Obama - 31%. TENNESSEE: Clinton - 56%, Obama - 38%. UTAH: Obama - 45%, Clinton - 44%.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.06.08 | Permalink
|
SUPER
TUESDAY GOP STATE SCORECARD: McCAIN - 9, ROMNEY - 7, HUCKABEE
- 5. ALABAMA: Huckabee - 41%, McCain - 38%, Romney - 18%, Paul
- 3%. ALASKA: - Romney - 44%, Huckabee - 22%, Paul - 17%, McCain
- 15%. ARIZONA: McCain - 48%, Romney - 34%, Huckabee - 9%, Paul
- 4%. ARKANSAS: Huckabee - 61%, McCain - 20%, Romney - 13%, Paul
- 5%. CALIFORNIA: - McCain - 42%, Romney -34%, Huckabee - 12%,
Paul - 5%. COLORADO: Romney - 55%, McCain - 21%, Huckabee - 15%, Paul
- 9%. CONNECTICUT: McCain - 52%, Romney - 33%, Huckabee - 7%,
Paul - 4%. DELAWARE: McCain - 45%, Romney - 33%, Huckabee - 15%, Paul
- 4%. GEORGIA: Huckabee - 34%, McCain - 32%, Romney - 30%, Paul
- 3%. ILLINOIS: McCain - 48%, Romney - 28%, Huckabee - 17%, Paul
- 5%. MASSACHUSETTS: Romney - 51%, McCain - 41%, Huckabee - 4%,
Paul - 3%. MINNESOTA: Romney - 41%, McCain - 22%, Huckabee - 20%,
Paul - 16%. MISSOURI: McCain - 33%, Huckabee - 32%, Romney - 29%, Paul
- 4%. MONTANA: Romney - 38%, Paul - 25%, McCain - 22%, Huckabee
- 15%. NEW JERSEY: McCain - 56%, Romney - 28%, Huckabee - 8%,
Paul - 5%. NEW YORK: McCain - 51%, Romney 28%, Huckabee - 11%, Paul
- 7%. NORTH DAKOTA: Romney - 36%, McCain - 23%, Paul - 21%, Huckabee
- 19%. OKLAHOMA: McCain - 37%, Huckabee - 33%, Romney - 25%, Paul
- 3%. TENNESSEE: Huckabee - 34%, McCain - 32%, Romney - 24%,
Paul - 6%. UTAH: Romney - 87%, McCain - 6%, Paul - 3%, Huckabee -
2%. WEST VIRGINIA: Huckabee - 52%, Romney - 47%. (Note: McCain's
campaign threw all of their caucus votes to Huckabee after Romney
placed first with a plurality on the first ballot).
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.06.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Your space to discuss everything non-Presidential
today.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.06.08 | Permalink
|
TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
CLINTON,
OBAMA AND McCAIN LOOK STRONG FOR SUPER-DUPER TUESDAY; AND ROGER
STONE'S 527 TURNS AGAINST COULTER. P2008 - DEMS: Hillary Clinton ... or Barack Obama ... is
leading nationally, as of Monday, depending upon which pollsters
you trust. Gallup places Clinton ahead by a 47-43 vote. CNN/Opinion
Research
says Obama now holds a 49-46 lead. Cook Political Report/RT Strategies
poll places Obama ahead 43-37. From my report yesterday, move
Utah into the Obama column. Two new polls show Obama holding a
double-digit lead over Clinton in Utah. As for the big prize --
California -- Clinton is fortunate that so many cast early ballots.
Now, even if Obama wins the votes cast on primary day, the early
ballots cast while Clinton held a solid lead should be enough
to give her an overall victory in the state. Between 2.5 and 3.5
million Californians -- or all parties -- will have cast early
votes by the time all the early and mailed ballots are tallied.
At the end of the day, look for Clinton and Obama to largely split
the day's delegates -- with Clinton likely ending up maybe 100-150
delegates ahead overall for the day. The results should guarantee
the Dem race continues for at least another 5-6 weeks. Clinton
Communications Director Howard Wolfson told the Wall Street
Journal the Dem race was certain to continue with no clear
winner until the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4 or beyond.
Also, FYI, some prominent Edwards endorsers who switched to Obama
in recent days include Congressmen G.K. Butterfield (D-NC), Jim
Oberstar (D-MN) and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ). Clinton also picked
up several Edwards folks including former Lt. Governor Joe Maxwell
(D-MO) and senior state legislators and DNC members from several
Super Tuesday states. In related news, Clinton Campaign National
Chairman Terry McAuliffe -- in an interview on Monday with NY1
-- said that Obama would certainly be on the VP short-list for
a Clinton ticket. McAuliffe said Clinton “needs to make
sure the next, whoever the next Vice President is, could take
over if anything happened to her ... Sure it would [be a good
idea to have Obama as the runningmate]. Absolutely. How could
you deny consideration of someone who has excited so many people,"
said McAuliffe. P2008 - GOP: CNN/Opinion Research gives John
McCain a 44-29 lead over Mitt Romney (with Huckabee third with
18%). Cook Political Report/RT Strategies places McCain first
over Romney by a 39-24 vote. Gallup says McCain leads Romney by
a 45-25 vote. In fact, California, Massachusetts and Utah appear
to be the only states on Tuesday were Romney has a reasonable
shot to win -- with Utah being a safe Romney victory. Huckabee
should score a win in his homestate of Arkansas, and may place
second ahead of Romney in Missouri. "Where does Romney go
after Tuesday? I don't see anywhere for him to go after Tuesday.
Name me one state after Tuesday where Romney can win a primary.
His campaign is dead after Tuesday, even if he keeps running,
because Huckabee keeps splitting the social conservative vote.
Huckabee is running a very smart campaign for a Cabinet seat,"
one McCain advisor told Politics1. Also on Monday, former New
York Governor George Pataki (R) -- a one-time 2008 GOP Presidential
hopeful -- endorsed McCain. STONE'S 527: The intentionally offensive and overtly sexist
527-group started last month by as a joke by Nixonite dirty trickster
Roger Stone -- Citizens United, Not Timid -- now has something
in common with liberal Dems: they despise conservative pundit
Ann Coulter. Just days after Coulter announced she would vote
for Clinton in November over McCain because Clinton is "more
conservative" than McCain, the 527 is already re-tooling
itself into an anti-Coulter group. Group chairman (and DJ/bartender)
James "Noodles" Jones said Coulter was "is madwhack
... Our organization was set up to deal with people like this."
He said the group plans to start selling new $25 t-shirts saying
they now stand for the educating "the American public about
what Ann Coulter really is." Stone's former political consulting
partner, Charlie Black, serves as senior advisor to the McCain
campaign.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.05.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
I think Hillary Clinton would make a great VP runningmate for
Barack Obama (or, vice versa ... sigh ... if needed).
But, while I think he'd accept the VP spot on her ticket, I don't
think she'd accept the VP on an Obama ticket.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.05.08 | Permalink
|
MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
ROMNEY
WINS MAINE CAUCUSES; NATIONAL POLLS SHOW CLINTON-OBAMA NEARLY
TIED, McCAIN HAS BIG LEAD ON GOP SIDE. MAINE: Mitt Romney scored a big victory in the Maine GOP
Caucuses this weekend. While there were some precincts still uncounted,
with most of the votes counted the outcome was clear: Romney -
52%, John McCain - 21%, Ron Paul - 19%, and Mike Huckabee - 6%.
Romney also won all 18 delegates up for grabs. The dismal McCain
outcome was an embarrassment for US Senators Susan Collins and
Olympia Snowe, who served as McCain's state co-chairs. Romney
said the Maine vote signalled conservative unease with McCain
-- likely referencing the frequent anti-McCain attacks by Rush
Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Pat Buchanan and others. Coulter went so
far as to say Thursday that she would vote for Hillary Clinton
over John McCain
in a general election. "She's more conservative than he is,"
quipped Coulter to Fox News. When asked over the weekend about
Coulter's comments, Romney said he welcomed Coulter's support
but added: "I intend to support our nominee, whether it’s
Senator McCain or whether it’s me." P2008 - GOP: The Gallup national tracking poll -- a good
general indicator of GOP sentiments heading into the 15 GOP primaries
and 6 GOP caucuses -- shows John McCain continuing to hold a solid
lead over his rivals. The poll uses a three-day rolling average.
The Sunday numbers: McCain - 43%, Romney - 24%, Huckabee - 18%.
Trends: McCain is up 11-points overall since winning the Florida
primary last Tuesday, while Romney is up 3-points and Huckabee
is unchanged since then. The new Washington Post/ABC News
poll confirms this snapshot: McCain - 48%, Romney - 24%, Huckabee
- 16%. In individual state polls, McCain holds solid leads everywhere
except California (where McCain holds a much more modest lead
over Romney). Related news: US Senators Johnny Isakson (R) and
Saxby Chambliss (R) of Georgia both endorsed McCain on Saturday,
as did US Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN), former US Senate Majority
Whip Don Nickles (R-OK), former Governor Pete Wilson (R-CA) and
former two-time Presidential candidate Steve Forbes. P2008 - DEM: The Gallup national tracking poll -- heading
into the 16 Democratic primaries and 7 Dem caucuses -- places
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama into a near statistical tie.
The numbers: Clinton - 46%, Obama - 44%. Trends: Both candidates
are up since the South Carolina and Florida primaries -- Clinton
is up two points over the past week, while Obama is up 11-points.
Now, here is where it gets strange: as Gallup uses a three-day
rolling average, Friday showed Clinton leading 44-41, then Saturday
showed her ahead 48-41, and now they are back within two. Using
the three-day methodology implies there was a huge upswing for
Clinton two days ago, then an equally big (or slightly bigger)
upswing for Obama yesterday. As with the GOP race, the latest
Washington Post/ABC News poll also confirms the closeness:
Clinton - 47%, Obama - 43%. Interestingly, the Post/ABC poll shows
McCain would defeat Clinton nationwide in the general election
by a 49-46 vote -- but that Obama beats McCain 49-46. Both Clinton
and Obama hold double-digit leads in match-ups against Romney.
The new CBS News/New York Times poll released Sunday shows
Clinton and Obama now tied with 41% apiece. The CBS/NYT analysis
shows Obama made his gains by nearly evenly splitting the white
male vote with Clinton and making an 11-point gain among females.
Clinton still holds a 7-point advantage with female Democrats.
Independent polling is also available for various February 5 contests.
Clinton holds leads outside the margin of error in Arkansas, Massachusetts,
New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah. Obama holds similar leads
in Georgia and Illinois. The rest fall into the category of tossups.
In other news, Clinton and Obama are both on the air with Kennedy
family endorsement spots. Clinton's ad features Robert F. Kennedy
Jr. (and Cesar Chavez' son) and Obama's ad features Caroline Kennedy.
RFK widow Ethel Kennedy and California First Lady Maria Shriver
endorsed Obama during the weekend. Former NARAL Pro-Choice America
President Kate Michelman -- who had been a John Edwards supporter
-- also endorsed Obama over the weekend. Congressmen Solomon Ortiz
(D-TX) and Gene Green (D-TX) -- former Bill Richardson supporters
-- endorsed Clinton on Saturday.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.04.08 | Permalink
|
FREE
SPEECH ZONE.
Super Bowl reactions, anyone?
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.04.08 | Permalink
|
SATURDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
DEM
RACE TIGHTENS; LOUISIANA SPECIAL FILING CLOSES; IL PRIMARY PREVIEW;
KY PRIMARY TURMOIL. P2008 - DEMS: The Gallup daily national tracking poll on
Friday shows the Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama race further tightening.
The numbers: Clinton - 44%, Obama - 41%. The 3-point margin is
the closest the two have been since the start of the race. The
poll uses a three-day rolling average, and these results include
two days of post-John Edwards withdrawal numbers. Speaking of
Edwards, CNN reported he will not make any endorsement before
the February 5 primaries.
In other news,
the liberal MoveOn.org group endorsed Obama on Friday, after members
voted 70-30 for Obama over Clinton in the group's "online
primary" this week. LOUISIANA: Filing closed this week for the Congressional
special elections in CD-1 and CD-6. In the CD-1 race to fill the
seat formerly held by Governor Bobby Jindal (R), four Republicans,
two Democrats and two Independents filed to run. The CD-1 seat
skews solidly Republican, so the winner of the March 8 GOP primary
will be the next Congressman. The leading candidates for the seat
are State Senator Steve Scalise (R), State Representative Tim
Burns (R) and Slidell Mayor Ben Morris (R). The CD-6 seat is open
due to the resignation of Congressman Richard Baker (R), who quit
to become a DC lobbyist. The GOP is also favored to win CD-6,
but the Dems have at least a slim chance here. The frontrunners
in CD-6 are former State Representative Woody Jenkins (R), former
Baker Chief of Staff Paul Sawyer (R), former State Recovery Authority
Director Andy Kopplin (D), and State Representatives Don Cazayoux
(D) and Michael Jackson (D). ILLINOIS: In addition to the Presidential primary on Tuesday,
voters will also select Congressional nominees. Three minor GOP
candidates are competing for the right to lose in November to
US Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D). In CD-3, Congressman
Dan Lipinski (D) is facing an aggressive primary challenge from
Lyons School Board Member Mark Pera and two others. Lipinski is
a more conservative Blue Dog Democrat, while Pera is fairly liberal.
Pera claims the other two Dems in the race are Lipinski plants
inserted into the contest to split the anti-incumbent vote. In
CD-8, wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg is expected win the
GOP nomination in the race against Congresswoman Melissa Bean
(D). In CD-10, two aggressive Dems are competing to face vulnerable
Congressman Mark Kirk (R) in the general election. In the open
CD-11 race, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann is expected to win
the GOP nomination. State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson
is unopposed for the Dem nomination. In CD-14, voters are casting
ballots in both the special election primary to fill the vacancy
left by the resignation of former House Speaker Denny Hastert
(R) -- and in the regular primary for the full-term. The same
candidates are competing in both contests. Wealthy businessman
Jim Oberweis and State Senator Chris Lauzen are the GOP frontrunners.
Hastert has endorsed Oberweis. Four Dems are also running. In
the open CD-18 race to replace the retiring Congressman Ray LaHood
(R), State Representative Aaron Schock is the favorite to win
the GOP nomination and capture the seat in November. KENTUCKY: Former pro football player and anti-tax activist
Chris Thieneman quit the GOP primary race for Congress in CD-3
after it became clear to him that state and federal GOP leaders
were strongly supporting former Congresswoman Anne Northup in
the primary. An angry Thieneman announced Friday he was quitting
the race, switching his registration to Democrat, and endorsing
Congressman John Yarmuth (D) for re-election. According to the
Louisville Courier-Journal, Jefferson County GOP Chairman
Jack Richardson called Thieneman's withdrawal a "public meltdown"
and added "he's [the Democrats'] problem now." US Senator
Mitch McConnell (R) also denied Thieneman's allegations.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.02.08 | Permalink
|
FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
CLINTON-OBAMA
DEBATE.
I felt like spending Thursday evening watching the Hillary Clinton-Barack
Obama debate ... so I'll let you guys run with the ball today.
Posted
by Ron Gunzburger - 02.01.08 | Permalink
|
RON
IS ON THE ROAD AGAIN ... SO NO NEW UPDATES FOR A FEW DAYS.
by
margins ranging from 4-11%. 
Presidential
primaries on Tuesday in Maryland, Virginia and the District of
Columbia. Independent polls seem to uniformly predict Barack Obama
will defeat Hillary Clinton by wide margins in all three contests.
Likewise, from widespread media reports, Clinton plans to make
her next "firewall" stand against Obama in Texas and
Ohio on March 4 -- although Clinton is reportedly making an effort
to keep Wisconsin competitive on February 19. The problem for
Clinton, however, is her campaign seemingly concedes Obama will
outraise Clinton by a good margin again this month. The Clinton
firewall strategy: she requires wins in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania
(April 22). The Clinton team fears an Obama win in any one of
those three states would place the nomination out of range for
her. Meanwhile, the New York Times is reporting a new story
on Obama's past drug use -- reporting Obama's youthful drug use
claims were possibly exaggerated in his autobiography, as his
actual experiences may be significantly less than he wrote.
Gilchrest
(R) -- a folksy Vietnam War veteran and Iraq War critic -- is
facing an aggressive primary challenge from the right. Conservative
State Senators Andy Harris and E.J. Pipkin are the leading challengers,
although two others are also running. Harris, a physician and
Navy veteran, is backed by the Club for Growth and former Governor
Bob Ehrlich. Pipkin, a wealthy businessman, was the GOP nominee
for US Senate in 2004. As Harris and Pipkin appear to be dividing
the same conservative base, the split should allow Gilchrest to
win renomination. The NRCC has been assisting Gilchrest, fearing
a more conservative GOP nominee would be unelectable in November
in this swing district. In CD-4, Congressman Al Wynn (D) is facing
a high competitive rematch from progressive attorney Donna Edwards.
Edwards, who is again backed by MoveOn.org, nearly ousted Wynn
in an upset two years ago. Four other Dems are also running. Wynn
is, at best, a marginal favorite over Edwards in a race most view
as too close to call. One aside: anti-war Ron Paul campaign activists
are running in GOP congressional primaries in five of the state's
eight districts. 
elected President or
retires in 2010. Although attorney Bob Lord (D) had raised over
$600,000 in 2007 for the race, the district still skews heavily
Republican.
Shadegg Chief of Staff Sean Noble (R) is a likely candidate for
the seat. Race rating: GOP Favored.
Hillary Clinton in all the contests this weekend in Louisiana,
Nebraska, Washington and Maine. The net result: Obama is now virtually
tied with -- or even ahead of -- Clinton in delegates nationally
by all network counts (and this includes all of the pledged super-delegates
to date). The weekend results:
Congressman
Ron Paul (R-TX) more or less quit the Presidential race on Friday
in an email to supporters. While Paul says he will continue to
"fight on" for President as an official candidate in
all upcoming primaries and caucuses, he acknowledged having "nearly
zero" chance of winning the Presidential nomination. Further,
he announced significant reduction of the size of his national
campaign staff -- moving most of his remaining campaign staffers
to his Congressional district so as to concentrate on his renomination
fight on March 4. "I have constituents in my home district
that I must serve. I cannot and will not let them down. And I
have another battle I must face here as well. If I were to lose
the primary for my congressional seat, all our opponents would
react with glee, and pretend it was a rejection of our ideas.
I cannot and will not let that happen," wrote Paul. Who are
the potentially gleeful opponents? Paul said it was "the
neocons, the warmongers, the socialists, [and] the advocates of
inflation." Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden (R) --
a social conservative and supporter of the Iraq War -- is Paul's
opponent in the GOP congressional primay. Finally, Paul made it
clear he will not be a third party Presidential candidate in November:
"I am committed to fighting for our ideas within the Republican
party, so there will be no third party run. I do not denigrate
third parties -- just the opposite, and I have long worked to
remove the ballot-access restrictions on them. But I am a Republican,
and I will remain a Republican."
While
rumors of a possible withdrawal had been floating since Tuesday
night, the CPAC audience was clearly surprised and dismayed by
the announcement. Without making any endorsement of McCain, Romney
still made it clear he was stepping aside in favor of McCain.
"If this were only about me, I'd go on. But it's never been
only about me. I entered this race because I love America, and
because I love America, in this time of war I feel I have to now
stand aside for our party and for our country ... I disagree with
Senator McCain on a number of issues, but I agree with him on
doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and
executing Osama bin Laden, and I agree with him on eliminating
al Qaeda and terror worldwide," said Romney. Reacting to
the news, Mike Huckabee quickly positioned himself as the lone
conservative alternative to McCain for the nomination: "I
know that a lot of the establishment, Washington-type folks are
going to be going with Senator McCain ... but the people of this
country need a choice. And right now, I am going to be their choice."
McCain, meanwhile, praised Romney as a loyal Republican and vanquished
rival who had put up a tough fight. Romney reportedly spent more
than $40 million of his own money on the campaign, won the GOP
contests in Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan,
Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming, and
won 269 delegates. He reportedly is already thinking of running
again for President in 2012.
and
it appears Obama won 4 delegates more than did Clinton this week.
Even including all super-delegates, it appears the two are now
separated by less than 100 delegates. The stunning news of the
day, however, was that revelation that Clinton's campaign is nearly
broke. Clinton lent her campaign $5 million from her own pocket
in the final week of January to keep her campaign on TV in the
final days leading up to the Tuesday vote. Clinton confirmed the
report at a press conference, explaining that Obama had outraised
Clinton 3-to-1 in January and that the campaign needed the cash
to stay competitive. "I loaned the campaign $5 million from
my money ... [because] my opponent was able to raise more money
and we intended to be competitive, and we were," said Clinton.
MSNBC and Time magazine later reported that campaign manager Patti
Solis Doyle and other top Clinton staffers have agreed to work
without pay this month due to the campaign's dire financial problems.
By contrast, The Politico reports Obama is on track to
raise at least $30 million in February. In related news, DNC Chair
Howard Dean told NY1 that a convention fight between Clinton and
Obama is "not a good scenario ... I think we will have a
nominee sometime in the middle of March or April. But if we don't,
then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make
some kind of an arrangement because I don't think we can afford
to have a brokered convention." 
special
election primary to replace resigned former House Speaker Denny
Hastert (R), wealthy dairy company owner Jim Oberweis defeated
State Senator Chris Lauzen by a 56-44 vote to win the GOP nomination.
Hastert had endorsed Oberweis for the nomination. Scientist Bill
Foster narrowly won the Dem nomination. Oberweis is heavily favored
to defeat Foster in the March 8 special election. No major surprises
in the other Illinois contests on Tuesday. Physician Steve Sauerberg
won the GOP nomination to face US Senator Dick Durbin (D) in November.
In CD-3, centrist Congressman Dan Lipiniski won a surprisingly
easy win over liberal School Board Member Mark Pera by a 54-25
vote, with two others dividing the remainder. In the open CD-11
race, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann romped to a landslide victory
in the GOP primary. State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson
is unopposed for the Dem nomination. In the open CD-18 race to
replace the retiring Congressman Ray LaHood (R), State Representative
Aaron Schock won the GOP primary with 71% against two opponents.
John
McCain a 44-29 lead over Mitt Romney (with Huckabee third with
18%). Cook Political Report/RT Strategies places McCain first
over Romney by a 39-24 vote. Gallup says McCain leads Romney by
a 45-25 vote. In fact, California, Massachusetts and Utah appear
to be the only states on Tuesday were Romney has a reasonable
shot to win -- with Utah being a safe Romney victory. Huckabee
should score a win in his homestate of Arkansas, and may place
second ahead of Romney in Missouri. "Where does Romney go
after Tuesday? I don't see anywhere for him to go after Tuesday.
Name me one state after Tuesday where Romney can win a primary.
His campaign is dead after Tuesday, even if he keeps running,
because Huckabee keeps splitting the social conservative vote.
Huckabee is running a very smart campaign for a Cabinet seat,"
one McCain advisor told Politics1. Also on Monday, former New
York Governor George Pataki (R) -- a one-time 2008 GOP Presidential
hopeful -- endorsed McCain. 
