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| BLOG ARCHIVE: MARCH 1-15, 2006
CALIFORNIA.
Here's the latest on the Congressman Elton Gallegly
(R) retirement follies. Despite a report from Roll Call that
Gallegly planned to abruptly reverse course again and announce
for re-election on Tuesday, that report proved false (at least,
so far it has). Instead, Gallegly told reporters he wants to explore
seeking legal relief in the courts -- and possibly from the state
legislature -- to allow an extension of the now-closed filing
period. If those efforts are unsuccessful, Gallegly says he would
then reconsider his withdrawal from the race. As it looks unlikely
Gallegly could legally prevail based upon current California law,
he may in fact be forced to run again -- which raises the likely
specter of a subsequent Gallegly resignation in early 2007 and
a costly special election. Other options are for Gallegly to make
it clear he wants to lose the June 6 primary while simultaneously
helping some other Republican running as a write-in candidate.
Gallegly appears unlikely to support attorney Michael Tenenbaum,
who filed to run against him in the primary. However, Moorpark
City Councilman Keith Millhouse, former Santa Barbara County Supervisor
Mike Stoker, prosecutor Jeff Gorell and others are already openly
talking about launching write-in bids in the primary if Gallegly
first gives his blessing for their bids. "Everyone is kind
of waiting for Elton to do something," said Gorell.
MISSOURI.
Three parties currently qualify for automatic ballot
access in Missouri: Democrats, Republicans and Libertarians. Unfortunately
for Congressional candidate Glenn Miller -- a 65-year-old retired
Army sergeant -- none of the three parties will allow him to compete
for their nomination this year. The reason: Miller is outspokenly
anti-Semitic and has a history of involvement in the white supremacist
White Patriot Party. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch,
Miller attempted to qualify for the ballot with all three parties
and each returned his paperwork and $100 filing fee. "He
does not share our core values, so we're not going to let him
run on our ticket," said a spokesman for the Missouri Democratic
Party. "It would be extraordinary for us to turn someone
down. But as the party of Lincoln, we can't accept him on the
Republican ticket," said the State GOP spokesman. The Libertarians
also rejected Miller for not sharing the party's views. "They're
making it virtually impossible to get my name on the ballot,"
complained Miller, who will now have to either collect nearly
6,000 signatures to appear on the ballot as an independent or
opt to run as a write-in. Previous federal court cases have established
the right of political parties to largely control their respective
nominating primaries and conventions. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Drinking
Liberally.
ILLINOIS.
With the primary only one week away, a new poll shows Governor
MASSACHUSETTS.
Two new independent polls show the Democrats well-positioned
to win the open gubernatorial contest. A new Rasmussen Reports
poll shows Attorney General Tom Reilly (D) leading Lieutenant
Governor Kerry Healey (R) by a 38% to 27% vote, with wealthy businessman
Christy Mihos (Independent) at 19%. If former USDOJ official Deval
Patrick is the Dem nominee, Patrick leads with 38%, followed by
Healey at 25% and Mihos at 17%. These numbers largely match those
from a new Boston Globe/UNH poll showed Reilly at 40%,
Healey at 26% and Mihos at 15%. The other trio: Patrick-36%, Healey-29%,
Mihos-13%. The Globe poll also showed Reilly leading
Patrick for the Democratic nomination by a 35% to 22% vote, with
wealthy venture capitalist Chris Gabrielli at 4%. Gabrielli, the
'02 Lt Gov nominee, has not yet decided whether or not he'll enter
the primary race. CALIFORNIA.
The comically inept retirement saga of Congressman Elton
Gallegly (R) continues to ARIZONA.
Former State Senate President John Greene (R) abruptly
quit the race for Governor on Monday, and slammed "the far
right's dominance of the Republican Party" in his remarks.
Greene firstly blamed GOP centrists for not actively working to
defeat Governor Janet Napolitano (D), saying that "Republican
moderates seem assured that she’s going to win and don’t
want to ruffle her feathers." However, Greene then lashed
out at social conservatives. "The Republican Party, at least
in Arizona, is at an all-time low in terms of reaching out to
people and trying to unify the party and recognizing there are
Republicans who believe that individual freedom means allowing
people to live their lives without government involvement,"
said Greene. He added he was not endorsing any of the GOP candidates
remaining in the race -- and said unless centrists "take
back control of the party" soon, he expects party members
like himself would abandon the Republican Party and re-register
as independents. Greene is the second GOP hopeful to exit the
race within the past week. State Representative Ted Carpenter
(R) quit the contest last week. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Phil Angelides
for California Governor (be sure to check out his
amusing other site: ArnoldsNeighborhood.com). FREE
SPEECH ZONE. What ... yet another Feingold plug-of-the-day
from Ron? You betcha! "I can't see a damn soul in D.C. except
Russ Feingold who is even worth considering for President. The
rest of them seem to me so poisonously in hock to this system
of legalized bribery they can't even see straight," writes
columnist Molly Ivins in the new issue of The
Progressive. P2008.
Retiring US Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN)
placed first with 37% in this weekend's straw ballot at the 2006
Southern Republican Leadership Conference. The event -- held in
Memphis -- gave CALIFORNIA.
Congressman Elton Gallegly (R) gets the award for the
"worst choreographed" retirement in years. Gallegly
waited until just before the close of candidate filing in California
on ARIZONA.
Congressman Rick Renzi (R) was favored to win re-election
this year, but was still facing a competitive challenge from former
State Indian Affairs Commissioner and former State Representative
Jack Jackson Jr. (D). In a surprise move, Jackson quit the race
on Thursday. "I have worked hard over the last 10 months
to build a strong and viable campaign in order to face Rick Renzi
in November. Unfortunately, the financial requirements of a congressional
campaign proved too difficult to meet this time," explained
Jackson, in his written statement. While other Dems are running,
Jackson's departure essentially gives Renzi an easy race for November.
SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Dave
Heineman for Nebraska Governor -- a really well-done
campaign site. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Some brief editorializing here, but let's
give -- yet again -- credit to US Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)
for his new proposal to censure President Bush for the domestic
spying matter. The censure is a slap on the wrist, it is far short
of any call for impeachment (which wasn't going to go anywhere
in Congress these days), it reasserts Congress' meaningful oversight
role in these matters, and is the appropriate way to address the
spying issue while giving our government an opportunity for quick
closure. ARKANSAS.
With less than a CALIFORNIA.
That was quick. Just two days after veteran Congressman
Bill Thomas (R) announced his unexpected retirement, it is already
clear his hand-picked successor will win the open seat. State
Assembly Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R) -- a former longtime
Thomas aide -- today faces no significant opposition for the GOP
nomination. State Senator Roy Ashburn (R), a powerful local GOP
rival of Thomas who initially told reporters he would challenge
McCarthy in the primary, announced a reversal on Thursday. The
conservative Ashburn decided to pass on the race. With filing
set to close Friday, political unknown David Evans is McCarthy's
only announced rival for the Republican nomination. Billy Olson
(Green) is also running. The district is solidly Republican, so
the GOP nominee will capture the seat.
THE
SHAME OF YAHOO! Maybe I'm a bit late coming
around to this
story, but I'm absolutely disgusted with internet giant Yahoo!
It seems the SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Janet
Napolitano for Arizona Governor -- a really well-done
campaign site. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Candidate qualifying closes in California
on Friday ... and happy birthday to my partner Dana. FLORIDA.
Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R) should try VERMONT.
Third party politics are alive and well in the Green
Mountain State. In a surprising upset, State Representative Bob
Kiss (Progressive) was elected Mayor of Burlington on Tuesday.
Kiss was largely a newcomer to city-level politics. Wealthy State
Senator Hinda Miller (D) was heavily favored to win, but lost
for the open seat. It was also the first time the city used Instant
Runoff Voting (IRV) -- and was the first time any US city
used IRV in over 30 years to elect a mayor. When the "first
choice" votes were counted, Kiss captured 39%, Miller had
31%, City Councilor Kevin Curley (R) had 26%, and two independents
split the remaining votes. As no candidate yet had a majority,
the IRV system kicked-in. The last-place candidate in each round
was eliminated and his/her "second choice" and "third
choice" votes were then added to the running tally of remaining
candidates. Kiss steadily moved up until he crossed the majority
threshold to win the race. Retiring Mayor Peter Clavelle -- a
one-time protégé of Bernie Sanders -- was initially
elected as a Progressive but switched to the Dems a few years
ago. MINNESOTA.
Almost 25,000 TEXAS.
Noting that 38% of GOP primary voters cast ballots against
former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's renomination this week,
Congressional Quarterly just downgraded his re-election
prospects to "No Clear Favorite." Explained CQ: "The
primary results suggest that even many hardcore Republicans have
wearied of DeLay’s reputation for combative partisanship
and the [criminal] probes into his political conduct that last
year forced him to surrender his powerful position as House majority
leader." MASSACHUSETTS.
A new WBZ-TV/SurveyUSA poll shows a very interesting
race for Governor -- and wealthy independent businessman Christy
Mihos is having a definite impact on the race. Attorney General
Tom Reilly is the strongest possible Democratic candidate. The
numbers: Reilly - 36%, Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey (R) -
31%, Mihos - 22%. If former US Justice Department official Deval
Patrick is the Dem nominee, he trailes Healey in the three-way
race. The numbers: Healey-35%, Patrick-30%, Mihos-20%. The same
poll also shows Reilly leading Patrick by a 47% to 37% vote in
the primary. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
FairVote.org
-- a leading advocacy group in support of Instant Runoff Voting. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Whatever. TEXAS.
PENNSYLVANIA.
Major party candidate filing closed on Tuesday with
no real surprises. Governor Ed Rendell (D) and retired football
star Lynn Swann (R) both went unopposed for their respective gubernatorial
nominations. Polls show the Rendell-Swann race is currently a
virtual toss-up. In the US Senate race, incumbent Rick Santorum
(R) and State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) both face nominal primary
opposition. The filing produced only a few contested primaries.
One worth watching is the Dem race in CD-8 between Iraq War veteran
Patrick Murphy and former Republican County Commissioner Andy
Warren. The winner will face conservative freshman Congressman
Mike Fitzpatrick (R) in this swing district. CD-4 and CD-6 also
have Dem primaries worth monitoring in districts that could become
competitive in November. Also, several congressional incumbents
currently have no major party opposition -- although state laws
allow the parties to file designated nominees later in the year.
CALIFORNIA.
US Senator Dianne Feinstein (D) is cruising to a landslide
reelection victory over retired State Senator Dick Mountjoy (R).
The latest independent Field Poll shows Feinstein leading Mountjoy
by a vote of 56% to 28%, with 1% supporting "others."
SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Bernie Sanders
for US Senate (I-VT). FREE
SPEECH ZONE. I started on French philosopher/celebrity
(an oxymoron in the US) Bernard-Henri Levy's American
Vertigo over the weekend and am really enjoying
it. Levy was invited by The Atlantic Monthly to recreate
de Tocqueville's Democracy in America journey of 173
years ago through the American experience. And -- for you conservatives
-- the book is not the mono-dimensional and knee-jerk anti-American
screed you're expecting. Levy's essays evolved into this fascinating
and thought-provoking book about understanding the promise, hopes
and problems of the US from a friendly outsider's perspective. CALIFORNIA.
Congressman Bill Thomas (R) -- TENNESSEE.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows the Republicans
are pushing further ahead of Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D) in
the open US Senate seat race. Former Congressman Ed Bryant (R)
leads Ford by a 45% to 36% vote. Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob
Corker (R) runs ahead of Ford by a much closer vote of 39% to
35%. Former Congressman Van Hilleary (R) leads Ford by a 43% to
35% vote. As this appears to be a trend, I'm close to moving this
one from "Leans GOP" to the "GOP Favored"
category. MAINE.
Governor John Baldacci (D) is under fire from both the
left and right, and it is taking a toll on his reelection odds.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows the incumbent trailing two
of his GOP opponents, and only narrowly leading a third. Former
Congressman Dave Emery (R) leads Baldacci by a 39% to 37% vote.
State Senator Peter Mills (R) holds a 39% to 38% advantage over
Baldacci. By contrast, Baldacci leads State Senator Chandler Woodcock
(R) by a 40% to 35% vote. Here's why Baldacci is in trouble: 39%
favorable rating versus a 50% unfavorable rating. The poll did
not test scenarios which include any of the 11 third party and
independent candidates already in the race. SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Paul
Hodes for Congress (D-NH). FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Okay, I know, I know ... I screwed up the
comment threads yesterday, as they were all identical. MASSACHUSETTS.
Now that former runningmate Governor Mitt Romney (R)
is retiring and a wealthy potential primary foe announced he will
instead run as an Independent, Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey
(R) is rapidly trying to regain her image as a centrist Republican.
Romney, in the past two years, repositioned himself as solidly
pro-life and anti-gay rights as he prepares to make a 2008 Presidential
run. As for Healey, she told the Boston Herald last week
she is "extremely pro-choice" and would have vetoed
the new South Dakota abortion bad legislation if it came to her
desk. This weekend, Healey told the Boston Globe she
likewise disagrees with Romney's views on gay adoption -- saying
she does not believe Catholic adoption agencies in the state should
have the right to block the placement of children with prospective
gay parents. Polls currently show Healey trailing the leading
Dem candidates for Governor. TEXAS.
Voters PENNSYLVANIA.
A new Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College
poll shows Governor Ed Rendell (D) remains locked in a very competitive
struggle to win re-election this year. The poll has Rendell at
46% and retired pro-football star Lynn Swann (R) at 43%. The same
poll also showed State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) trouncing US
Senator Rick Santorum (R) by a 49% to 37%. Both polls included
totals for both solid supporters and "leaners." SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Ballot Initiative
Strategy Center. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. The Oscars ... politics ... whatever. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Have at it. MISSISSIPPI.
Filing closed this week in Mississippi for the state's
June 6 primary. US Senator Trent Lott (R) will coast to an easy
victory over whichever minor challenger wins the Democratic primary.
NEBRASKA.
MASSACHUSETTS.
Not that Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey (R) wasn't
already in an uphill fight to succeed retiring Governor Mitt Romney
(R) in November, but her odds got a bit worse this week. Multimillionaire
businessman and former Romney Administration State Turnpike Authority
Board Member Christy Mihos announced he was leaving the GOP and
would instead enter the gubernatorial contest as an Independent.
"Republicans basically just have become like the Democrats
-- just beholden to special interests," said Mihos. As for
issues, Mihos is pro-choice, pro-gay rights and pro-tax cuts.
Within a day, five top Mihos staffers quit. One the departing
staffers told the Boston Herald the move was due to the
fact that Mihos "wasn't willing to be managed" -- and
not because of bolting from the GOP. On the Democratic side, Attorney
General Tom Reilly and former US Justice Department official Deval
Patrick are running. Wealthy venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli
is also making calls about entering the race.
ARIZONA.
US Senator Jon Kyl (R) holds a wide lead in his race
for re-election, according to the latest KPNX-TV/SurveyUSA poll.
Kyl leads wealthy developer and former State Democratic Chair
Jim Peterson by a vote of 57% to 33%. CONGRESS.
A new George Washington University Battleground poll
-- a bipartisan survey conducted jointly by Dem pollster Celinda
Lake and GOP pollster Ed Goeas -- showed Democrats leading Republicans
in a generic Congressional ballot by a 46% to 41% margin among
likely voters. The Democratic advantage increased to 9-points
when respondents were asked which party "would do a better
job solving the nation's problems." Explained Lake: "Voters
are poised to affect sweeping change ... Independent and undecided
voters are noticeably negative in their assessments of Bush and
the direction of the country." Said Goeas: "The bottom
line is that the mood of the electorate is not an anti-incumbent
mood, an anti-Democratic or anti-Republican mood, but an anti-Washington
mood."
SITE
OF THE DAY. Our Politics1 Site of the Day winner is
Jerry
Brown for California Attorney General. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Blogads is conducting its third annual
survey of political blog readers. The survey takes about five
minutes to complete, buy helps provide a fascinating snapshot
of visitors to this and other political sites. Click
here to participate in the blogger survey (and please
be sure to name Politics1 as the referring site for Question #23).
Thanks! FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Another really busy day at work -- the
deadline to timely file in Florida for a homestead exemption --
so we have another open thread. We did have a little excitement
today at work when retired basketball great Scottie Pippen came
in to file for an exemption on his Broward County home. Real updates
tomorrow ... I promise! (PS - A computer glitch caused me
to permanently lose about 50 emails sent to me on Wednesday, so
please re-send if this includes one from you.) NORTH
CAROLINA. Candidate filing closed in North Carolina
on Tuesday, leaving one Congressional incumbent with no major
party opposition and several others with only nominal opponents.
CALIFORNIA.
Candidate filing also closed this week for the CD-50
special election. Nineteen candidates qualified to run, including
former Congressman Brian Bilbray (R), former State Assemblyman
Howard Kaloogian (R), State Senator Bill Morrow (R), retired pro-football
player Scott Turner (R) and college professor Francine Busby (D).
The seat was formally held by Congressman Randy Cunningham (R),
who resigned in a corruption scandal and was subsequently sentenced
to federal prison. The primary is April 11. COLORADO.
Democrats succeeded in clearing the gubernatorial nomination
field for former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (R). State
Representative Gary Lindstrom (D), Ritter's last remaining primary
opponent, quit the contest on Tuesday. Lindstrom declined to immediately
endorse Ritter, but instead attacked the two GOP candidates as
"out of touch with the issues." MINNESOTA.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Congressman Mark
Kennedy (R) continuing to narrowly trail either of the leading
Democrats in the open US Senate race. Kennedy trails Hennepin
County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) by a vote of 42% to 40%. Kennedy
also trails wealthy veterinarian and philanthropist Ford Bell
(D) by a 45% to 42% vote. The NRSC touts Kennedy as the GOP's
best chance of scoring a pick-up of a Democratic-held seat in
2006. US Senator Mark Dayton (D) is retiring.
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. I think Tuesday set a personal record for
the most typos, redundancies and errors in a single day's postings.
Yup, that's what I get for writing when I'm way too exhausted.
This Monday and Tuesday are traditionally two of the busiest days
in the entire year for our office (the equivalent of April 15
for IRS employees), so today's again postings is also short (but,
hopefully, less error-prone). |
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ANWR.
US Senate Democrats -- joined by some environmentalist
Republican Senators -- won a victory late last year by blocking
the Bush Administration's plan to allow drilling for oil in Alaska's
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The move had a petulant Senator
Ted Stevens (R-AK) briefly threatening resignation and, later,
budgetary revenge against the Republicans who sided with the Dems.
On Thursday, the full Senate is expected to vote on a budget resolution
that instructs the Energy Committee to authorize drilling in ANWR.
This week's floor maneuver is an attempt to use Senate debate
rules involving federal budget matters which require only a bare
majority for passage to revive the Bush plan.
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. "I'm concerned about the approach
Democrats are taking, which is too often cowering ... The Administration
just has to raise the specter of the War on Terror and Democrats
run and hide ... If there's any Democrat out there who can't say
... the President has no right to make up his own laws, I don't
know if that Democrat really is the right candidate [for President
in 2008]," said US Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI), commenting
on the unwillingness of most of his Senate Dem colleagues to support
his resolution of censure for the President's illegal wiretapping
program. To date, only Senators Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Barbara
Boxer (D-CA) have indicated they would vote in favor of Feingold's
resolution.
Rod
Blagojevich (D) cruising to an easy renomination and the nasty
GOP primary contest rapidly tightening. The latest St. Louis
Post-Dispatch/Research 2000 poll shows Blagojevich leading
former Chicago Alderman Edwin Eisendrath by a 61% to 26% margin
among likely Dem primary voters. State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka
has been the frontrunner for the GOP nomination since she entered
the contest -- and polls regularly show her to be the strongest
potential GOP challenger to the incumbent. The survey of likely
GOP primary voters places Topinka at 36%, wealthy businessman
Jim Oberweis at 25%, philanthropist Ron Gidwitz at 19%, State
Senator Bill Brady at 11%, and frequent candidate Andy Martin
at 1%. Oberweis and Brady are social conservatives, while Topinka
and Gidwitz are centrists. Oberweis has been gaining on Topinka
in recent weeks with a steady barrage of harsh attacks launched
against the frontrunner -- but all of the Republicans have been
bloodying each other in this bitter fight. Eisendrath is also
firing shot after shot at Blagojevich, but they don't seem to
be gaining traction for him in the primary.
get
worse. Gallegly -- who bungled his last minute attempt to retire
-- now finds himself forced to seek reelection to an office he
no longer desires to hold. It appears
little-known Republican attorney Michael Tenenbaum filed at the
last minute to run against Gallegly in the primary. As of the
close of business on March 13, Tenenbaum was still not listed
on the Secretary of State's website as a qualified candidate for
the primary ballot -- but news reports indicate he qualified through
his local elections office. The news will now force Gallegly to
actively campaign for the primary just so he can then subsequently
quit in order to have GOP leaders select a replacement nominee.
Tenenbaum was not a fan of the incumbent. Gallegly "is wasting
taxpayer dollars, doesn’t recognize the importance of securing
our borders and he has pursued a legislative agenda that is misguided
at best," said Tenenbaum, when he filed his paperwork minutes
before Gallegly announced his retirement plans. Those kind of
statements make Gallegly unlikely to rally behind Tenenbaum as
his replacement. However, other district Republicans have resigned
themselves to the likelihood Tenenbaum will win the seat. Ventura
County GOP Chair Leslie Cornejo told CQPolitics.com it would "be
best for our party and our country" for Gallegly to simply
withdraw in favor of Tenenbaum. "I believe today that Mr.
Tenenbaum will be our next Congressman," said Cornejo. 
Frist
a homefield advantage. On top of that, nearly all the rivals --
plus uncommitted attendees we spoke with -- all agreed Frist stacked
the vote with local supporters. Still, Frist won the vote and
will tout it as a show of strength. The surprise of the event
was the rousing conservative speech and second place finish with
14% in the straw ballot by Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA). Senator
John McCain (R-AZ) -- who was accompanied throughout the event
by Senator Trent Lott (R-MS) and other Southern supporters --
did not even seek votes in the straw ballot. Lott was one of the
most vocal critics in describing the balloting as stacked for
Frist. To counter the fix, McCain strategically urged delegates
to cast write-in votes for President Bush to show support for
the Administration. Bush's write-in votes placed him in a tie
for third with Senator George Allen (R-VA), as both scored 10%
apiece. McCain was fifth with 5%, Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
was sixth with 4%, and the rest trailed behind. Congressman Tom
Tancredo (R-CO) complained he was entirely snubbed by event organizers
because of his outspoken immigration views. "They can keep
Congressman Tancredo off the main stage, but they will not be
able to do the same with the issue," said Tancredo's spokesman.
"We chose primarily national leaders who are considered to
be top Presidential contenders in 2008. Nothing against him, but
we had a tight program," responded a spokesman for the host
Tennessee Republican Party.
OUT
... AND OUT? PENNSYLVANIA - National abortion rights
activist Kate Michelman ended speculation she'd jump into the
Santorum-Casey race for US Senate. "Despite profound and
fundamental differences [on the abortion issue], I have decided
that Pennsylvania will be better served by electing Bob Casey
to the US Senate than giving his opponent another term,"
wrote Michelman in a newspaper op-ed this weekend. FLORIDA - Days
after insisting she had no plans to quit the US Senate race, Congresswoman
Katherine Harris (R) released a media advisory on Saturday saying
she will "prayerfully prepare with my family, friends and
advisors to finalize the strategy for a major announcement next
week concerning my candidacy for the US Senate." As for sending
mixed signals, Harris went ahead with several events and fundraisers
over the weekend. If that notice isn't foreshadowing a withdrawal,
then it is just another example of political ineptness.
month
to go until the close of major party candidate filing, it appears
both have managed to clear the field for their leading gubernatorial
hopefuls. On Thursday, former Clinton Administrator Social Security
Commissioner Bill Halter (D) quit the race for Governor and jumped
into the crowded contest for Lieutenant Governor. Attorney General
Mike Beebe is now unopposed for the Democratic nomination for
Governor. Likewise for former Congressman and former DEA Administrator
Asa Hutchinson, who faces no opposition for the GOP nod. Former
State Representative Jim Lendall (Green) and music shop owner
Rod Bryan (Independent) are also running for Governor. Independent
polls currently show Beebe leading by several points. Governor
Mike Huckabee (R) -- who is preparing for 2008 White House run
-- is term-limited.
company
is so concerned with grabbing a share of the huge potential markets
in the People's Republic of China that they're willing to help
the authoritarian PRC government identify and jail democratic
dissidents. Yahoo provided the Chinese government with information
that pointed to the identity of Chinese citizens who created and
used anonymous Yahoo email accounts and member pages for propagating
critical pro-democracy messages. The PRC dictators, in turn, used
the Yahoo info to charge individuals with the "crime"
of "inciting subversion" and sentence them to lengthy
prison terms. I've been meaning to mention this disgraceful story
since I read about it last month ... but better late than never.
Yahoo: Willing to trade freedom for greed.
Shame, shame, shame!
out
for a for a spot in a revival of Dreamgirls -- because
the famous Jennifer Holliday tune "And I'm Telling You,
I'm Not Going" could be her new theme song. Republicans
are desperately trying to push Harris off the political stage
as poll after poll show her losing more ground to US Senator Bill
Nelson (D). New stories about Harris receiving over $50,000 in
illegal campaign contributions from the same defense contractor
who bribed former Congressman Duke Cunningham (R-CA) only increased
the pressure. Rumors in Tallahassee swirled this week that Harris
was quitting the race and being replaced as the GOP candidate
by either Governor Jeb Bush or Congressman Mark Foley. Harris
finally made a statement on Wednesday to AP trying to squelch
the rumors: "We are running hard. We think we have great
momentum ... We've had some negative hits but we've had an overwhelming
response from grassroots and leadership around the state that
are saying 'Go for it' and that's what we're doing." Foley
-- who is sitting on a sizable campaign war chest -- told reporters
this week he'd consider the race, but only if Harris first withdraws.
Democrats
around the state gathered Tuesday night in local caucuses to begin
the process of chosing delegates to the state party endorsing
nominating convention. In the US Senate race, Hennepin County
Attorney Amy Klobuchar clobbered wealthy philanthropist and peace
activist Ford Bell by a vote of 77% to 16%, with 7% uncommitted.
Bell has vowed to continue to fight into the primary even if he
loses the DFL endorsement at the convention. By contrast, the
gubernatorial race was much more competitive. Attorney General
Mike Hatch was first with 39%, followed by State Senator and anti-war
activist Becky Lourey at 22%, State Senator Steve Kelley at 22%,
and wealthy developer Kelly Doran at 6%. Kelley is the only gubernatorial
hopeful who promises to quit the race if he doesn't win the endorsement
at the convention. Republicans also hold their local caucuses
this week, but neither Governor Tim Pawlenty nor US Senate candidate
Mark Kennedy face any serious opposition for their respective
nominations. 
Voters cast primary ballots in Texas on Tuesday, selecting
statewide and congressional nominees in many races and narrowing
primary run-off fields in other contests. Turnout was just 13%.
In the Democratic primary for Governor, former Congressman Chris
Bell rolled to an easy 2-to-1 victory over former State Supreme
Court Justice Bob Gammage. Bell will face Governor Rick Perry
(R), State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (Independent) and
colorful author/singer Kinky Friedman (Independent) in November.
Perry holds a comfortable lead in the race. 
The
CD-28 Democratic Congressional primary featured a bitter rematch
between conservative Congressman Henry Cuellar and liberal former
Congressman Ciro Rodriguez. The progressive netroots crowd poured
money in the Rodriguez campaign in an effort to defeat President
Bush's proclaimed "favorite" House Democrat. With nearly
all votes counted, Cuellar appears to have won by a 53% to 41%
vote. In CD-22, former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay captured
62% to easily deflect three Republicans who tried to oust him
by emphasizing DeLay's pending ethics problems. 
NEW
YORK. Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D) continues to
hold a massive lead over any of his potential GOP opponents in
the open gubernatorial contest, according to a new NY1/Newsday
poll. Spitzer leads former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld (R)
by a 57% to 16% vote. Spitzer also trounces former Assembly Minority
Leader John Faso (R) by a 56% to 16% vote. In the Democratic primary
contest, Spitzer destroys Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi by
a lopsided vote of 60% to 9%. On the GOP side, Weld leads the
primary field with a paltry 8%, followed by Faso at 6%, and former
Secretary of State Randy Daniels and Assemblyman Pat Manning tied
with 3% apiece. Manning quit the race a few days ago. Race Rating:
Safe Dem.
term-limited
Chairman of the powerful House Ways & Means Committee -- announced
Monday he will not seek reelection this year to a 15th term. Surveys
of Beltway insiders regularly rate Thomas as one of the most brilliant,
hard-working and meanest Members of Congress. Thomas was also
seen as the key endorsement that swung the close House Majority
Leader contest in favor of John Boehner (R-OH) last month -- meaning
that Thomas could likely have had a new chairmanship of another
committee if he wanted one. Candidate filing closes in California
on Friday and the late announcement was clearly intended to benefit
Thomas' hand-picked heir: State Assembly Minority Leader Kevin
McCarthy (R). McCarthy, a former longtime Thomas congressional
staffer, immediately entered the race. State Senator Roy Ashburn,
the GOP nominee for Congress in 2004 in a nearby district and
a Thomas rival in local politics, also jumped into the GOP contest.
The CD-22 district, centered around the Bakersfield area, is solidly
GOP. Look for Thomas to actively support McCarthy, making him
the favorite in this open seat race. In somewhat related news,
it looks increasingly likely that term-limited House Science Committee
Chairman Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY) will also announce his retirement
later this month.
go
to the polls in Texas to cast primary ballots on Tuesday. There
appear to be only three races truly worth watching. The top race
of the day is the CD-28 Democratic Congressional primary rematch
between conservative Congressman Henry Cuellar and liberal former
Congressman Ciro Rodriguez. Cuellar narrowly defeated Rodriguez
in 2004 after a lengthy recount and court intervention. Cuellar
is viewed as President Bush's "favorite Democrat" in
the House and, thus, is a top target for many Dem activists. Cuellar
is also the first Dem endorsed by the fiscal conservative Club
for Growth, a GOP-aligned group. A third candidate in the Cuellar-Rodriguez
primary could force a run-off. Another hot race features controversial
former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's GOP primary contest in
CD-22. DeLay shouldn't have any problem cruising to an easy renomination
-- but, if he's unexpectedly forced into a run-off, it will be
a sign of serious weakness in November even among the GOP base.
DeLay has three Republican challengers, with former NOAA General
Counsel Tom Campbell -- a member of the Bush-41 Administration
-- as his most credible primary opponent. The winner of the GOP
primary will face former Congressman Nick Lampson (D) in the general
election. The Democratic primary for Governor is also hotly contested,
with former Congressman Chris Bell facing former Congressman and
former State Supreme Court Justice Bob Gammage. To view all of
Tuesday's contests, 
State
Representative Erik Fleming (D) is the highest profile of the
group, but his past ties to radical political cult leader Lyndon
LaRouche severely damage Fleming's credibility. The hottest race
in the state -- and the only one worth watching -- is the Democratic
primary in CD-2. Congressman Bennie Thompson faces an aggressive
Dem primary challenge from State Representative Chuck Espy. Espy
is the nephew of former Congressman and former US Agriculture
Secretary Mike Espy, who previously represented this district.
Espy says Thompson "has constantly given us speeches without
substance which only excite the emotions ... [but] has never given
us a plan to move the district forward." Thompson, however,
holds a major advantage in campaign cash. Thompson had $529,000
cash-on-hand as of the most recent FEC filing period, versus just
$58,000 in the bank for Espy. Current Rating: Thompson Favored.
Tchula Mayor Yvonne Brown is the GOP candidate against Thompson,
but the district is so heavily Democratic that the winner of the
Thompson-Espy contest is safe in November.
Filing
also closed in Nebraska this week. Unlike Mississippi, there are
several hot races here. The GOP gubernatorial primary between
Governor Dave Heineman, Congressman Tom Osborne, and businessman
Dave Nabity is generating the most sparks. The contest between
Heineman and Osborne is expected to be very close. Heineman started
as an underdog against legendary former college football coach
Osborne, but a weak effort from Osborne and an aggressive campaign
by Heineman closed the gap. US Senator Ben Nelson (D) is favored
in his reelection race, but still will face spirited opposition
in his reliably red state. The three Republican hopefuls are former
Attorney General Don Stenberg, former State GOP Chair David Kramer,
and wealthy former Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts. The CD-3 open
seat contest is also worth watching, as the winner of the GOP
primary will take this safe seat in November. State Senator Adrian
Smith, former Osborne aide John Hanson and Grand Island Mayor
Jay Vavricek appear to be the early leaders. 
LIBERTARIAN
PARTY. Anti-tax activist and bestselling author Harry
Browne -- the only person to ever twice win the Libertarian Party's
Presidential nomination -- died on Wednesday at age 72. Browne
was the party's nominee in 1996 and 2000. He secured ballot access
in all 50 states in his first run, capturing 485,000 votes and
finishing fifth. Browne placed fifth again in 2000 with 386,000
votes. His allies strongly held control of the party during this
period, so strongly in fact that it caused a rift by sharply splitting
party activists into rival pro-Browne and anti-Browne (or "Reform")
factions. 
The
only two races meriting any real attention are the Democratic
challenges in CD-8 and CD-11. In CD-8, Congressman Robin Hayes
(R) will likely face Iraq War veteran Tim Dunn (D), once Dunn
dispatches his two minor primary foes. Race rating: GOP Favored.
In CD-11, ethics-challenged incumbent Charles Taylor (R) is once
again in the crosshairs. Former pro-football quarterback and businessman
Heath Shuler -- a former NRCC recruitment target for another House
seat -- is a conservative Democrat with solid name-ID in the district.
Shuler seems less vulnerable to the "liberal" attacks
as some of Taylor's former opponents. Race rating: Leans GOP.
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