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| BLOG ARCHIVE: MAY 16-31, 2006
P2008:
NEW GROUP SEEKS "NATIONAL UNITY" TICKET FOR 2008. DC:
OF FREEBIE BOXING TICKETS AND GREENHOUSE GASSES. KANSAS:
EX-GOP STATE CHAIR SWITCHES PARTIES ... TO RUN AS DEM? BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. SITE
OF THE DAY.
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. ALASKA:
RUMORS BUZZING AS FILING DEADLINE LOOMS. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. OHIO:
DIFFERENT DISTRICTS, DISTRICT APPROACHES FOR GOP STRATEGISTS.
SITE
OF THE DAY.
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. ALASKA:
MURKOWSKI TO RUN AGAIN. Politics1
Poll: PICK THE HOTTEST WOMAN IN POLITICS. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. The
Politics1 Poll: Name the Hottest Woman in US Politics (v 2.0) BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. COLORADO:
HOLTZMAN WON'T QUIT GOV RACE. NEW
YORK: FASO, WELD (AND GREENS) ADVANCE TO NOVEMBER. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. The
Politics1 Poll: Who is the hottest woman in US politics? BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. IDAHO
& ARKANSAS: PRIMARY RESULTS. CONGRESS:
UNITED HILL REACTION TO FBI SEARCH OF JEFFERSON OFFICE. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. NORTH
CAROLINA: MYRICK RULES OUT GOV RUN IN 2008. NEW
ORLEANS: NOW FOR MY DRUDGE-LIKE RETRACTION. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. NEW
ORLEANS: DRUDGE-ROVE-LANDRIEU SEX SCANDAL
ROVE DISGUISED SELF AS FEMALE HOOKER, TRADED SEX ACTS FOR LANDRIEU VOTES XXXXX
EXCLUSIVE XXXXX POLITICS1 REPORT XXXXX EXCLUSIVE XXXXX IDAHO:
HOT GOP PRIMARY RACE IN OPEN CD-1 SEAT. ARKANSAS:
LOOK FOR RELATIVELY QUIET PRIMARY DAY. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. P2008:
MINUTEMAN GROUP FOUNDER LIKELY TO MAKE WHITE HOUSE RUN. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. CONNECTICUT:
DEM & REP STATE CONVO'S ENDORSE CANDIDATES. CONGRESS:
P2008:
ALLEN, GIULIANI LEAD WISCONSIN GOP STRAW POLL. COLORADO:
BEAUPREZ WINS BIG OVER HOLTZMAN AT GOP CONVO. NEW
ORLEANS: MAYOR NAGIN WINS RE-ELECTION. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. PENNSYLVANIA:
PROBLEMS FOR THE GOP? FREE
SPEECH ZONE: "IF THIS ISN'T NICE, I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS." MICHIGAN:
PRIMARY FILING CLOSES. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. PENNSYLVANIA:
CASEY CRUISES, SHERWOOD STRUGGLES.. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. KENTUCKY:
NO SURPRISES ON PRIMARY DAY. OREGON:
KULONGOSKI, SAXTON WIN TOUGH PRIMARIES.
FREE
SPEECH ZONE. OREGON:
KULONGOSKI, SAXTON LOOK STRONG FOR PRIMARY. PENNSYLVANIA:
RATHER QUIET PRIMARY DAY. KENTUCKY:
...
YAWN ... PRIMARY PREVIEW. BY
THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT POLLS. CALIFORNIA:
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formed
a new group that threatens the political status quo for the next
Presidential election. Named 
As
a result, most Americans have not been enthusiastic about the
choices for President in recent elections, the key issues they
ran on, or the manner in which the campaigns were conducted. Therefore
Unity08 will act to assure that an alternative ticket is presented
to the American voters in 2008 ... headed by a woman and/or man
from each major party or by an independent who presents a Unity
Team from both parties." On issues, the group seem very reminiscent
of Ross Perot's 1992 campaign (i.e., focused largely on national
security, economic, trade, energy, health care and education issues
-- and downplaying social hot-button issues like abortion, guns
and gay marriage). It remains to be seen if a group like this
can succeed without being financially backed by a deep pocket
like the eccentric Perot. Unless, of course, this is a well-planned,
stealthy first stage of a NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg for President
effort. Like Perot, the billionaire Bloomberg could easily self-finance
a purported "national unity" coalition campaign for
the Presidency. "I think I have a better job than the Governor
and the President does," said Bloomberg a few days ago to
the New York Daily News, in his latest and less-than-convincing
denial of interest in the 2008 race.
SEND
A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE.
Murkowski
has among the lowest approval ratings of any Governor in the nation,
a dismal disapproval rating that even extends to Republican voters.
Former two-term Governor Tony Knowles (D) -- who lost a competitive
US Senate in 2004 against incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) -- confirmed
over the weekend to reporters he is considering jumping into the
Gov race. According to the Anchorage Daily News, Knowles
is expected to enter the race. The newspaper also reported the
buzz that State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) will
purportedly end his gubernatorial campaign before Thursday's filing
deadline to become Knowles' Lieutenant Governor runningmate. Candidates
for Alaska Governor and Lieutenant Governor run separately in
the primary, but are then paired as teams in the general election.
Other sources claim State Representative Eric Croft (D) is also
apparently willing to end his run for Governor and support Knowles.
On the GOP side, the Daily News said Lieutenant Governor Loren
Leman (R) will announce this week he will file for reelection
instead of challenging Murkowski in the primary. Leman is expected
to withhold making any endorsement of anyone in the hot GOP primary
fight between Murkowski, wealthy Alaska Railroad Commission Chair
John Binkley and former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin. Interestingly,
Murkowski's announcement was so unexpected that nearly all of
the people who organized Murkowski's winning 2002 campaign had
signed on with Binkley.
MONTANA
- US SENATE (Helena Independent Record/Mason-Dixon):
THE
HOTTEST WOMAN IN POLITICS: MARSHA BLACKBURN.
Murkowski,
the oldest Governor in the nation at age 73, is beset by poll
numbers also showing him to be one of the least popular Governors
in the nation. Speaking about the weak economy, Murkowski explained:
"When I thought about the reasons for coming back, it was
to get this thing moving again ... Building the [natural] gas
line is certainly the number one priority of my administration."
Alaska Railroad Commission Chair John Binkley (R) made it clear
he would continue his campaign, even with Murkowski running. "Murkowski’s
time as governor has been one of failed leadership. His getting
into the race today is just another example of how out of touch
he is with Alaskans," said Binkley to the Anchorage Daily
News. Former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin also said she would
stay in the GOP primary fight against Murkowski. Interestingly,
even Lieutenant Governor Loren Leman (R) said he's continuing
to contemplate entering the race for Governor. "I never underestimate
an incumbent. I think of Jimmy Carter [in 1980], who was unpopular.
He wasn’t elected again, but he was nominated," said
Leman. Two Democrats are already in the race, but former Governor
Tony Knowles (D) is now considering a challenge. Knowles will
make his plans known within a week. While Murkowski would be very
vulnerable against Knowles, his popularity is so low he is at
risk of losing his own primary in August if one of his challenges
runs an effective race. 
A
pretty cool feature of the new poll software: I can see the IP
addresses associated with each vote. This means I can view --
and eliminate (and did eliminate) -- all of the duplicate "cheat"
votes. I've also activated some other controls to keep the vote
honest. That said, the current totals (from around 11 pm on Friday
night) reflect the real and fair tally. 
CALIFORNIA
- GOVERNOR - DEM PRIMARY: State Treasurer Phil Angelides
- 44%, State Controller Steve Westly - 32%. (KABC-TV/SurveyUSA).
Republican
candidates for New York Governor are both assured of appearing
on state ballots in November. Former Massachusetts Governor Bill
Weld last month won the Libertarian nomination for Governor. This
week, former State Assembly Minority Leader John Faso won the
Conservative Party nomination for Governor. New York allows "fusion"
candidacies, meaning candidates may appear simultaneously on the
ballot as the nominees of different parties. Thus, no matter whether
Weld or Faso win the GOP primary in September, the loser will
continue his campaign into the general election. By contrast,
Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is a safe bet to win the Democratic
line and has already won the Working Families Party line. In related
news, the New York Green Party nominated their slate of candidates
this week. Bestselling author Malachy McCourt won the Green nomination
for Governor and Green Party of the US co-founder Howie Hawkins
won the US Senate nomination. Polls show Spitzer leading all his
rivals by a landslide margin.
Call
it flippant, sexist, irreverent, or whatever ... but it is time
for our biennial poll on the hottest woman in US politics. First,
we limited the contenders to either elected officials or candidates
for elective office (but we excluded porn star/candidates like
Mary Carey and Mimi Miyagi -- as that wouldn't be a fair race).
Contenders are white, hispanic and black, democrats and republicans,
from coast-to-coast. 2004 winner Stephanie Herseth (D-SD) is back
with a new look for her second run, facing off against nine others.
And, FYI, we totally reject the "sexist" tag -- as we're
also going to run a poll for the hottest male politico next week.
Brady
did likewise on the Democratic side, winning his primary with
83%. Race rating: GOP Favored. In the race for Lieutenant Governor,
former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D) won his primary by a 2-to-1
margin and will face incumbent Jim Risch (R) in November. In the
race the succeed Otter in CD-1, State Representative Bill Sali
won the six-way GOP primary with 25% of the vote -- finishing
6-points over his nearest rival. Sali raised more than any of
his rivals and was backed by the Club for Growth, Gun Owners of
America, American Conservative Union, National Right to Life and
many other conservative groups. However, as conservative columnist
Robert Novak wrote last week, Sali was also the Republican the
Democrats wanted most to face because Sali is "detested by
the state's Republican establishment for reasons of both conservative
principle and his lack of personal skills." (And, FYI, detested
by me simply because he broke my 100% wining streak on political
predictions this year.) Republican leaders have had extensive
problems working with Sali in the State House, so much so that
the GOP House Speaker stripped Sali of his committee chairmanship
late last year after a round of floor arguments. On the Democratic
side, attorney Larry Grant easily won the much lower profile CD-1
primary with 75% of the vote. Sali "has a core group of supporters
who believe in him and work for him, but frankly, I think it's
a pretty limited group," said Grant. Race rating: GOP Favored.
FBI's
search of a congressional office as a violation of the constitutional
separation of powers. "Well, I have got to believe at the
end of the day it is going to end up across the street at the
Supreme Court. I don't see anything short of that ... [the search
was] the Justice Department's invasion of the legislative branch
... [The FBI] take the same oath, so somebody better start reading
the Constitution down there," said Boehner. Hastert was outraged:
"Nothing I have learned in the last 48 hours leads me to
believe that there was any necessity to change the precedent established
over those 219 years [of barring Justice Department searches of
Capitol Hill offices] ... I am very concerned about the necessity
of a Saturday night raid on Congressman Jefferson's Capitol Hill
Office in pursuit of information that was already under subpoena
and at a time when those subpoenas are still pending and all the
documents that have been subpoenaed were being preserved. The
Founding Fathers were very careful to establish in the Constitution
a Separation of Powers to protect Americans against the tyranny
of any one branch of government. They were particularly concerned
about limiting the power of the Executive Branch. Every Congressional
Office contains certain Legislative Branch documents that are
protected by the Constitution." Hastert demanded -- and received
-- a meeting with President Bush. At the meeting, Hastert said
he told the President the search was "unconstitutional"
and demanded that the Justice Department "back up, and we
need to go from there." Hoyer was equally blunt, saying he
had "grave concerns regarding the very serious constitutional
issues" raised by the search. "No Member is above the
law, but the institution has a right to protect itself against
the Executive [branch] going into our offices," added Hoyer.
Pelosi made remarks largely echoing Hoyer's comments. All of the
leaders seemed to express their greatest anger that the FBI did
not even give the leadership any advance notice of the impending
search. US Senate leaders -- from both parties -- were largely
silent on the FBI search. "We have a great deal of respect
for the Congress as a coequal branch of government ... [but] we
have an obligation to the American people to pursue the evidence
where it exists," responded Attorney General Alberto Gonzales
at his press conference. Jefferson is under investigation for
accepting a $100,000 cash bribe. Numerous media sources also report
Democratic leaders are pressuring Jefferson to resign -- although
he remains defiant, insists he is innocent, and says he "expects
to" seek reelection. (An aside: "I have been racking
my brain all day and calling people, wanting to know what could
be the other side of the story for a Congressman having $90,000
of cash in his freezer. And the collective wisdom of my friends
have not been able to come up with anything. But if he can come
up with a reason for this ... I want to hear it, because I can't
think of it," said Democratic consultant James Carville.)
FLORIDA
- GOVERNOR: (Rasmussen Reports)
Otter
is a safe bet to win in November. In the race the succeed Otter
in CD-1, six Republicans are competing: State Controller Keith
Johnson, State Senator Skip Brandt, State Representative Bill
Sali, former State Senator Sheila Sorensen, Canyon County Commissioner
Robert Vasquez and former congressional aide Norm Semanko. Sali
raised more than any of his rivals (around $375,000) and is backed
by the Club for Growth, Gun Owners of America, American Conservative
Union, National Right to Life and many other groups. Sorensen
-- the second-best fundraiser in the race at $160,000 -- labels
herself a "conservative" but positioned herself as the
most centrist Republican in the primary. She's supported by the
League of Conservation Voters and the centrist Main Street Partnership.
Johnson is endorsed by the state's largest newspaper, pro-business
BIPAC and former Governor Phil Batt (R). Vasquez, running on an
immigration reform platform, is backed by Congressman Tom Tancredo
(R-CO) and former US Treasurer Bay Buchanan. Semanko, a former
top aide to US Senator Larry Craig (R), is backed by many of Craig's
closest allies. Brandt is supported by arch-conservative former
Congresswoman Helen Chenoweth Hage (R). Sali appears the likely
frontrunner in terms of both money and solid conservative endorsements.
However, I'll roll the dice here to preserve my 100% record on
predictions this year and go with Sorensen to win the primary.
She's the only woman against five men, and will also benefit from
the five men splitting the same hardcore conservative base. On
the Democratic side, look for attorney Larry Grant to win the
low-profile CD-1 primary. 
Gilchrist
-- the retired accountant who founded the controversial Minuteman
Project civilian border patrol group -- met with Constitution
Party national leaders last week at a Florida gathering. The leaders
openly asked Gilchrist to be their nominee for President in 2008.
He responded by saying that if McCain runs in the Republican contest,
they can count on him to be the Constitution Party's candidate.
Gilchrist sharply disagrees with McCain's support for guest worker
program and amnesty for many illegal immigrants already in the
US. Gilchrist made a third-party bid for Congress in the California
CD-48 special election last year. He raised over $500,000 and
captured an impressive 25% of the vote in that race -- finishing
just 3-points behind the Democratic nominee. Gilchrist is a close
political ally of Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO), who endorsed
Gilchrist over the GOP nominee in that congressional race.
Conservative groups aligned with the GOP helped Ralph Nader obtain
ballot status in several states in 2000 and 2004. Will progressive
groups aligned with the Dems help Gilchrist in key swing states
as payback?
US
Senator Joe Lieberman (D) won his party's endorsement over wealthy
businessman and peace activist Ned Lamont. However, Lamont won
an impressive 33% of the convention vote and will continue his
to fight on in the primary. While liberal party activists and
the blogosphere are solidly behind Lamont -- upset with the incumbent's
support for the Iraq War and perceived closeness to President
Bush -- recent polls show Lieberman holding a huge lead over Lamont
among likely primary voters. Former Derby Mayor Alan Schlesinger
won the GOP nomination for US Senator, as businessman and immigration
reform activist Paul Streitz withdrew and endorsed Schlesinger
before the floor vote. Schlesinger told reporters two weeks ago
that his only real chance of winning in November is for Lamont
to win the Democratic nomination and Lieberman to split the Democratic
base by running as an Independent -- and, even with the Dems split
like in the 1970 race that elected Lowell Weicker (R), Schlesinger
admits he'd still likely be an underdog. US Senate Race rating:
Safe DEM. In the gubernatorial race, popular centrist Governor
Jodi Rell (R) unanimously won her party's nod. The Democratic
race, by contrast, was a hotly contested event. Stamford Mayor
Dan Malloy and New Haven Mayor John DeStefano split the vote nearly
evenly. After the initial first ballot count, DeStefano led by
just three votes. Under party rules, delegates are then permitted
to switch their votes -- and several did. After much arm-twisting
on the convention floor, the lead switched and Malloy won the
endorsement by a vote of 799 to 795. Both men had previously announced
they would continue the relatively polite fight into the primary,
regardless of the convo outcome -- so Malloy and DeStefano will
face-off again in August. Rell is running far ahead of either
challenger in recent polls. Check out our 
P2008:
GORE SAYS HE WILL NEVER AGAIN RUN FOR NATIONAL OFFICE.
Marc
Holtzman in the gubernatorial contest by a vote of 72% to 28%.
Under Colorado rules, a candidate must earn 30% for an automatic
primary ballot spot -- so Holtzman must now petition himself onto
the August 8 ballot. Beauprez's campaign called on Holtzman to
quit the bitter race in the interest of party unity. They noted
the party agreed to every procedural rule for the convention that
Holtzman insisted upon -- rules so cumbersome and complicates
it took eight hours for all the voters to be cast. The Beauprez
campaign accused Holtzman of demanding convention rules so complex
as to intentionally stall the process and discourage delegates
from staying for the vote. In response, a Holtzman spokesman scoffed
at the claims and the call to withdraw. He said Holtzman had anticipated
the convention outcome because the process was largely dominated
by GOP insiders -- and Holtzman had already gathered nearly enough
petitions to place himself on the primary ballot. Holtzman expected
to submit the requisite number of voter signatures later this
week. Meanwhile, former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter won
the Democratic nomination for Governor without opposition at his
party's state convention on Saturday. Race rating: Leans DEM.
New
Orleans voters re-elected Nagin over challenger Lieutenant Governor
Mitch Landrieu (D) by a vote of 52% to 48%. Landrieu was unable
to assemble a winning coalition in the run-off even though he
had the official endorsement of the Republican Party, the third
place primary finisher, and other prominent black and white community
officials. No incumbent New Orleans Mayor has been defeated for
reelection in over 60 years. In the campaign, Nagin apologized
for his administrative fumbles and gaffes in the aftermath of
the Hurricane Katrina flooding -- saying it was a destructive
event of an unforseen magnitude -- but that he would do his best
to rebuild the city. He liked to explain that -- with his emotional
outbursts and flaws -- he was much like the people of New Orleans
and they understood him. In winning, Nagin offered an olive branch
to those he lambasted earlier. "This election is over, and
it's time for this community to start the healing process ...
It's time for us to be one New Orleans ... Me and Mitch can work
together. Me and the Governor can work together. I'm bringing
everybody in because this is a big job." Landrieu also called
for unity: "We as a people have got to come together so that
we can speak with one voice and one purpose, and I am asking to
you to join with me in supporting Mayor Nagin and his administration,
and the people of this city, to get this city back again."
Turnout was slightly higher than in the primary -- and was an
impressive 38% of all registered voters, measuring from the registration
tally before the post-Katrina disapora. (FYI: For those of
you bloggers with short memories of your own predictions on this
mayoral run-off, made just after the April primary, you can still
view them 
bit
of excitement to a day at the beach on Sunday. A pack of four
black-tip sharks (looking much like the sharks in this picture)
-- just small ones, maybe 3-4 feet long apiece -- swam across
the submerged sand bar and, in the shallow channel between the
sandbar and the beach, moved down along the beach in a casually-paced
and uneven serpentine pattern. From time to time, their dorsal
fins broke the surface. At their closest, they came within maybe
four feet of the beach. Then, after maybe five minutes cruising
along the shoreline, they just swam out to sea. Although it all
happened along a crowded but un-lifeguarded stretch -- with lots
of folks in the water -- nobody panicked. No mass panic scene
like in Jaws. People simply moved slowly towards the
shore (without much splashing) and got out, they let the sharks
pass by, and then we all got back in the water. About 30 minutes
later, a small, lone, black-tip swam in and followed almost the
same course. And then everyone -- little kids, seniors, couples,
etc. -- all waded back into the water once it passed. Best of
all, nobody got hurt and it gave us all a story to tell on Monday.
Major
party filing closed this week for Michigan's August 8 primary.
Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) and billionaire challenger Dick
DeVos (R) won their respective gubernatorial nominations without
opposition. In the US Senate race, incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D)
faces no primary foes. Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, former
Detroit City Councilman Keith Butler and think tank director Jerry
Zandstra filed for the GOP contest to face Stabenow in November.
The only Congressional primaries worth watching are in CD-7 and
CD-9. Freshman Congressman Joe Schwarz -- an outspoken GOP centrist
-- faces a vigorous primary challenge from social conservative
former State Representative Tim Walberg. Veteran Congressman Joe
Knollenberg also will face a spirited Republican primary against
Oakland Schools Board Member and former State Representative Patricia
"Pan" Godchaux. 
Casey
is rated a favorite over incumbent US Senator Rick Santorum (R)
in November. Lieutenant Governor Catherine Baker Knoll (D), 75,
likewise rolled to an an easy victory by capturing 63% of the
vote over her three opponents. Embattled Congressman Don Sherwood
(R) -- who was caught last year in a messy extramarital affair
and domestic violence scandal -- struggled in his GOP primary
over unknown school guidance counselor Kathy Scott. He defeated
Scott by a surprisingly modest 57% to 43% vote, moving Sherwood
high up on the list of vulnerable House incumbents for November.
The sex scandal wrecked the conservative "family values"
image Sherwood cultivated in politics. Naval Reserve Office Chris
Carney (D) and counselor Niki Hannevig (Constitution) will face
Sherwood in the general election. In other congressional primaries,
attorney Lois Murphy (D) won a comfortable victory in CD-6, Iraq
War veteran Patrick Murphy (D) won the primary in CD-8, and Congressman
Mike Doyle (D) scored a landslide win in CD-14.. In CD-4, former
congressional aide and lobbyist Jason Altmire appears to have
defeated wealthy businesswoman Georgia Berner in a competitive
Democratic primary. In another sign of an anti-Republican backlash,
the State Senate's top two Republican leaders who helped craft
the unpopular legislative pay raise -- Senate President Pro Tempore
Robert Jubelirer and Senate Majority Leader Chip Brightbill --
both lost their respective renomination primaries. 
Primary
day in the Bluegrass State went as predicted. In CD-1, former
Congressman Tom Barlow (D) captured 76% to score an easy win over
his two little-known primary opponents. Barlow has lost several
consecutive races and is not viewed as any real threat to Congressman
Ed Whitfield (R) in November. In CD-2, State Representative Mike
Weaver (D) easily won his primary with 70% of the vote and will
face Congressman Ron Lewis (R) next. The most competitive primary
was in CD-3, where former newspaper publisher John Yarmuth (D)
scored a solid 54%-32% win over retired USMC officer Andrew Horne
(D) and two others. Yarmuth is challenging Congresswoman Anne
Northup (R). Although Northup is currently rated as favored to
hold the seat in this swing district, this has the potential to
turn into a competitive race. Attorney Ken Stepp (D) won the largely
meaningless CD-5 primary with 70%, but will have no real shot
at winning in November in his heavily GOP district. The hottest
race in the state -- the CD-4 contest between freshman Congressman
Geoff Davis (R) and retired Congressman Ken Lucas (D) -- saw no
primary on Tuesday. Instead, they'll both automatically advance
to the toss-up fight in November.
Kulongoski
(D), a political centrist, survived a spirited challenge from
his left. Kulongoski captured 54%, former State Treasurer Jim
Hill had 30% and Lane County Commissioner Pete Sorenson had 16%.
The Democratic base seemed unhappy with the incumbent's handling
of the economy and his poor relations with state legislative leaders.
On the Republican side, former Portland School Board Member Ron
Saxton won the GOP nomination on his second attempt. Saxton was
the most moderate of the GOP hopefuls, but moved to the right
on some issues in the primary in the face of fierce attacks against
him by his more conservative rivals. Saxton scored a solid win
with 43%, followed by former State GOP Chair Kevin Mannix at 30%,
State Senator Jason Atkinson at 22%, and five others finished
far behind. Mannix and Atkinson both endorsed Saxton in tepid
remarks after the votes were counted. "Any one of us Republicans
would be better than Kulongoski," said Mannix. Both primary
contests were expensive and bitter brawls, and both victors called
for party unity in their victory speeches. State Senator Ben Westlund,
a folksy rancher with a largely libertarian philosophy, quit the
GOP this year to run for Governor as an Independent. Westlund
is expected to score in the double-digits in November, so both
major party nominees understand he will be a major factor in the
race outcome. "I'm running against two Republicans, is how
I look at it," said Kulongoski. Westlund is a fiscal conservative
and social liberal, so he could draw from both men. Retired businessman
Joe Keating (Pacific Green) is also running. Race rating: Toss-Up.
Also, FYI, none of the congressioal primaries were remotely competitive.
CALIFORNIA:
JERRY BROWN ALREADY LOOKS TO FUTURE RACES.
Oregon,
although the votes have largely been cast already through the
mail-in process the state uses. Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) is
expected to win his primary over his more liberal challengers.
Former State Treasurer Jim Hill and Lane County Commissioner Pete
Sorenson are both challenging Kulongoski from the left. While
Kulongoski has some fences to mend with his base, he should not
have any real problem dispatching Hill and Sorenson. On the Republican
side, former State GOP Chair Kevin Mannix and State Senator Jason
Atkinson are splitting the conservative base. That split has enabled
former Portland School Board Member Ron Saxton -- a GOP moderate
-- to emerge as the frontrunner for the nomination. FYI: Hill,
Saxton and Mannix all lost races for Governor four years ago.
Several of the Congressional incumbents face primary challenges,
but none of those races are remotely competitive. 
State
Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) will roll to a landslide victory over
his earnest, progressive primary challengers. Casey is already
a favorite over incumbent US Senator Rick Santorum (R) in November.
Aging and gaffe-prone Lieutenant Governor Catherine Baker Knoll
(D) could be vulnerable to an upset in her primary, but Governor
Rendell already threw his weight behind Knoll and caused her most
serious rival to quit the primary race. There are several congressional
primaries worth watching. In CD-4, former congressional aide and
lobbyist Jason Altmire appears favored to win the Democratic nomination
over wealthy businesswoman Georgia Berner. Our other primary predictions:
attorney Lois Murphy (D) in CD-6 and Iraq War veteran Patrick
Murphy (D) in CD-8. Embattled Congressman Don Sherwood (R), who
was caught last year in a messy extramarital affair, should easily
win his primary. However, if teacher Kathy Scott (R) breaks the
25% mark in the primary, Sherwood could be in trouble in November
against Naval Reserve officer and college professor Chris Carney
(D).
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