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BLOG ARCHIVE: JUNE 2005
THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.
FLORIDA: New independent poll numbers released on the '06 US Senate and open gubernatorial contests. In the US Senate race, incumbent US Senator Bill Nelson (D) led Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R) by a 50% to 38% vote in the Quinnipiac University poll. Nelson also led State House Speaker Allan Bense (R) -- the White House's favored candidate who has yet to enter the race and remains largely unknown -- by a vote of 55% to 26%. A GOP primary poll shows Harris led Bense by a 54% to 6% vote. "I started out on the bottom. Remember, 35 years ago I was a janitor in an office building cleaning toilets. I've seen a lot of people rise from great depths and be successful," said Bense. In the race to replace term-limited Governor Jeb Bush (R), Attorney General Charlie Crist continues to lead for the GOP nomination. The numbers: Crist-43%, State CFO Tom Gallagher-31%. On the Democratic side, bad press for former State Democratic Chair Scott Maddox has taken a toll. The results: Congressman Jim Davis-24%, Maddox-16%, and conservative State Senator Rod Smith-7%. The anemic Democratic numbers make the field ripe for another candidate to jump in -- not that anyone else is really looking at it. It's
a light news day but, hey, we're approaching a slow holiday weekend.. WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE. SUPREME
SENATORS: US Senate Minority Leader
MEDICAL MARIJUANA: Despite a recent US Supreme Court ruling that the federal government has a right to ignore state medical marijuana laws and enforce federal drug prohibitions, the Rhode Island Legislature overwhelmingly decided to send a message this week. By a veto-proof majority, the RI Leg became the 11th state to approve the decriminalization of medical marijuana. Governor Don Carcieri (R) said he will likely veto the bill, but the votes are clearly there to override the expected veto. State Representative Thomas Slater is the sponsor of the bill. Slater is also 64 years old and has undergone treatment for lung and prostate cancer. "Would I really take marijuana? I don't know. I just want the option out there for people. If they feel it would help them and a doctor feels it would help them, then I want them to have the option to use it without fear of state prosecution," he explained. Since the high court ruling last month, federal agents conducted high profile raids on medical marijuana clubs in California. "The DEA has said they would not go after the sick and dying, and we don't think they will in Rhode Island," said Slater. NEW YORK: State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno (R) told the Hudson Valley News he now believes Governor George Pataki (R) will seek a fourth term next year. "I think he has had three good terms and I frankly believe that he would continue his good work over the next five years," said Bruno. Polls repeatedly show Pataki trailing Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D) by a wide margin. In related news, a radio talk show producer is organizing a GOP gubernatorial draft campaign for billionaire businessman, perennial candidate, and political independent Tom Golisano.
TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.
THE SUPREMES: In the final day of the US Supreme Court term, the sharply split justices issued a confusing pair of "Ten Commandments" rulings -- and the day did not produce the anticipated Court retirement. In two 5-4 rulings, the Supreme Court held that a six-foot granite monument of the Ten Commandments on the grounds of the Texas Capitol was permissible but that framed copies of the Ten Commandments displayed inside of some Kentucky courthouses violated the separation of church versus state. Justice Stephen Breyer was the swing vote, upholding the Texas display but rejecting the Kentucky one. Essentially, the Court held these must be decided on a case-by-case basis. But framed copies in two Kentucky courthouses went too far in endorsing religion, the court held. The courthouse displays are unconstitutional because the religious content was overemphasized. By contrast, the Texas display was one of 17 historical displays on the Capitol grounds and was determined to be a legitimate tribute to the nation's legal and religious traditions. "Simply having religious content or promoting a message consistent with a religious doctrine does not run afoul of the Establishment clause," wrote Rehnquist in the Texas case. Justice Antonin Scalia -- who supported the displays in both instances and is seemingly auditioning daily for the role of Chief Justice -- blasted his colleagues in the Kentucky case. Scalia warned that "the dictatorship of a shifting Supreme Court majority" threatened the rule of law. While some Court observers expected ailing Chief Justice William Rehnquist to announce his retirement on Monday -- as closing day announcements of retirements are a Supreme Court tradition -- Rehnquist made no announcement. Some still predict he will retire in coming days via a written statements, but this seems a 50/50 prospect now. He may, instead, opt for what some others have done: stay on the Court until his death. If Rehnquist doesn't resign within the next ten days, don't count on it happening this year. NEW YORK: Governor George Pataki (R) has a change of plans for his announced timetable. Originally, Pataki said he would make a decision on seeking a fourth term when the state legislature adjourns. Now, he says he's in no rush to make any decision -- crippling his party's planning for the '06 elections. "I'll make it when I'm ready," says Pataki now. Some Republicans are upset: "If the Governor intends to run, he has to say it now ... Actually he should have done it a while ago," complained Congressman John Sweeney (R). CONSTITUTIONAL
CHANGES: Call it the "Bring Back Bill Clinton"
amendment or the "Dubya '08" amendment ... but US House
Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Congressman Howard Berman (D-CA)
and House Judiciary Chair Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI) are proposing
a constitutional amendment to repeal the 22nd Amendment's lifetime
two-term limit for US Presidents. MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE. THE
"THIRD WAR" BECOMES THE GOP WAY: Wasn't British
Prime Minister Tony Blair once President Clinton's close friend,
so much so that many Brits joked that Blair hired many Clinton
political advisors for his own race because he actually wanted
to be Clinton? Then came Blair's alliance with President
Bush since 2002 on the Iraq War and -- to drive the nail in the
coffin of Blair faded friendship with the Dems -- now comes the
news that Blair's son Euan, 21, will spend three months working
on Capitol Hill on the US House Rules Committee majority staff
of Chairman David Dreier (R-CA). In P2008 news,
we've added the new John Kerry page
with updated links ... and added a profile on the P2008:
Democrats page of our most inadvertently entertaining (and
seriously delusional) candidate: Randy
Crow. Yup, that's right! The self-proclaimed "Returning
Christ" -- who loves denouncing Politics1 (and this writer)
as an evil "Zioni$t" tool -- is back with more conspiracy
theories to bolster his third White House run. Beyond these two
items -- as not much significant in politics happened Sunday --
feel free to treat today as an open thread. SATURDAY NEWS UPDATE:
This
week's mini-movie review: Bewitched. Despite the cute
early premise of a unique storyline -- not a remake of the original
series, but something different (shades of the wonderful Adaptation)
-- director Nora Ephron sucks the life out of more than half of
the movie by evolving the story into yet another of her formulaic
(and totally predictable) love story. Adding to the problems is
the pairing of Will Ferrell and Nicole Kidman as the couple is
pretty unbelievable. Some cute moments -- and Shirley MacLaine
and Steve Carell are the most fun to watch, despite their small
roles -- but wait for this one to come out on cable. FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE:
Let
me clarify one thing from yesterday's postings: as much as I like
Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist on a personal basis, I
don't agree with his politics. They are simply much more conservative
than are mine. We disagree on issues ranging from the death penalty
to gay rights to taxes. That's why I'll still campaign for a Democratic
candidate next year for Governor. THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE:
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 6.23.05 | WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE:
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 6.22.05 | TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE:
As
many of you know (or have figured out), I typically write these
updates in the evening once I get home from my "real job."
Well, Dana and I celebrated our 18th anniversary on Monday ...
so I've spent more time on family and less on writing today. Thus,
the shorter daily entry. MONDAY NEWS UPDATE:
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 6.20.05 | SATURDAY NEWS UPDATE:
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 6.18.05 | GOP
LEADERS TORPEDOING KATHERINE HARRIS SENATE RUN. It
appears the Bush White House, Florida Governor Jeb Bush and the
NRSC are combining their efforts in an attempt to cripple the
US Senate run by Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R-FL). FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE:
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 6.17.05 | THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE:
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 6.16.05 | WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE:
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 6.15.05 | TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
First, MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
Why is today's news entry so brief? You see, I used to wonder
-- when watching local TV news reports in years past -- who are
those lunatics out surfing when a major storm kicked up the waves
and the red "dangerous conditions" flags went up on
the lifeguard stands. Well, now I know ... I'm one of them. OHIO:
Voters cast primary ballots Tuesday in the special election for
the CD-2 seat that was vacated when Congressman Rob Portman (R)
resigned to become the new US Trade Representative. There are
12 Republicans and 6 Democrats competing in the primary (click
here to find links to their campaign sites). On the GOP side,
US Senate scion and Hamilton County Commissioner Pat DeWine started
the race as the frontrunner. However, DeWine saw his lead erode
in recent weeks as he came under attack for messy details involving
his personal life -- and as some conservatives seem to be exacting
revenge on DeWine for his father being one of the US Senators
who helped the Democrats stop Bill Frist's so-called "nuclear
option" on judicial nominees. The main beneficiary of DeWine's
slide is former Congressman Bob McEwen, who previously represented
about 40% of the current district but spent the last decade as
a DC lobbyist. McEwen has picked up a slew of endorsements from
former top Reagan Administration officials to Religious Right
leader Dr. James Dobson and former VP nominee Jack Kemp. DeWine
hit back at McEwen, attacking him for having bounced numerous
checks at the now-defunct House Bank before himself being bounced
from Congress in the early 1990s. Former State Representative
and pro-life activist Jean Schimdt would likely gain most if conservative
voters shift support away from both DeWine and McEwen. On the
Democratic side, attorney and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett is
the favorite -- but it probably doesn't matter much who wins the
Dem primary in this fairly safe Republican district. GITMO:
The Bush Administration doesn't care if US Senate Foreign Relations
Committee members WEEKEND
NEWS UPDATE.
FLORIDA #1: The Florida Republican FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
VERMONT: Former Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine
(D) may spoil any chance of reaching an informal peace accord
between the Democrats and the Progressive Party allies of socialist
Congressman Bernie Sanders (Independent). Racine -- the failed
Dem nominee for Governor in 2002 -- said Thursday he's thinking
of running for the US Senate. Most Dems, including DNC Chair
Howard Dean, have tried to clear the field for Sanders by ensuring
he won't face serious Democratic opposition for the seat being
vacated by US Senator Jim Jeffords (Independent). Sanders --
like Jeffords -- would caucus with the Democrats if he won.
In exchange, the Democrats want a deal that the Progressives
won't run a serious nominee for Sanders' open House seat --
helping to ensure a Democratic win. A Dem/Prog split in races
could divide the liberal vote, helping to elect GOP candidates
with narrow pluralities. THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
INDIANA: Democrats are buzzing with speculation
that former Congressman Tim Roemer (D) will be their challenger
next year against US Senator Dick Lugar (R). Lugar was first
elected to the Senate in 1976, when he defeated an 18-year incumbent.
Now a five-term incumbent, Lugar has cruised to easy wins in
recent years against relatively benign opponents. Roemer --
a pro-life Dem who found himself pegged as "too conservative"
when he ran for DNC Chair against Howard Dean earlier this year
-- may be well positioned to give Lugar a feisty challenge.
The DSCC is touting a poll that claims Roemer is within striking
range, but take it with a grain of salt. Lugar would start as
a favorite, but Roemer may be the type of Dem who could have
a real shot at an upset win in the Hoosier State. KANSAS:
This past weekend, WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
FLORIDA: A
LOOMING COURT VACANCY: AN EDITORIAL: With the
current US Supreme Court term winding down, it appears fairly
apparent that ailing Chief Justice William Rehnquist's retirement
announcement is just days away. If that comes to pass, conservative
Associate Justices WEDNESDAY
OPEN THREAD.
A place for you to comment on everything else that's off-topic. TUESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
P2008 #1: Conservative maverick Congressman
Tom Tancredo (R-CO) is preparing to take his rabidly anti-immigrant
message nationwide in the form of a Presidential run. Tancredo
warns audiences that mass-immigration is destroying the US with
the "cult of multiculturalism" and demands a "militarization
of the border" to fight it. According to the Denver Post,
Tancredo is planning a series of visits to early Presidential
primary states. "If there is no other person [making tougher
immigraton controls their central issue] ... then we have no
choice" but to enter the '08 Presidential contest, he told
the newspaper. NEW JERSEY: TUESDAY
OPEN THREAD.
A place for you to comment on everything else that's off-topic. MONDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
NEVADA: A new independent poll conducted for
the Reno Gazette-Journal shows Congressman Jim Gibbons
holding a solid lead in next year's GOP primary contest for
Governor. The numbers: Gibbons-37%, Lieutenant Governor Lorraine
Hunt (R) - 21%, State Senator Bob Beers - 3%, and the rest were
undecided. Some prominent Republican leaders who dislike Gibbons
are trying to convince either wealthy Reno Mayor Bob Cashell
or University of Nevada Chancellor Jim Rogers to jump into the
race. The contest is even more wide open on the Democratic side,
where State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus leads State Assembly
Speaker Richard Perkins by a vote of 17% to 15%. Many believe
colorful Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (D) will be a last-minute
entrant into the race next year, making him the new frontrunner
for the post being vacated by term-limited Governor Kenny Guinn
(R). FRIDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
MICHIGAN: New independent polling indicates
that US Senator THURSDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
KANSAS: Conservative State Senator Kay O'Connor
(R) on Wednesday announced her candidacy for Secretary of State.
Incumbent Ron Thornburgh (R) has yet to announce his plans for
2006, although he is mentioned as a possible candidate for Governor.
O'Connor made national headlines in 2001 when she criticized
the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which gave women
the right to vote. "I think the 19th Amendment, while it's
not an evil in and of itself, is a symptom of something I don't
approve of ... I believe the man should be the head of the family.
The woman should be the heart of the family," said O'Connor
four years ago. She told the AP yesterday the whole controversy
that followed was a "silliness"
and voters won't consider her old comments "significant"
these days. Yeah, right ... as Secretary of State is Kansas'
chief elections official. P2008: Or maybe P2012
or P2016. President George H.W. Bush -- "Bush 41"
to DC insiders -- told Larry King that he thinks his son Jeb
should run for President "someday ... when the timing is
right." He further explained that the Florida Governor
won't run in '08 because "the timing’s wrong."
Does that mean "41" thinks the Dems will win in '08?
Jeb will only be 59 in 2012 (or 63 in 2016), so he'll certainly
be viable age-wise in either of those years. DEEP THROAT
(AGAIN): Former Nixon aide Pat Buchanan has got to
win the award for the most laughably outrageous slam at Mark
Felt. Appearing on MSNBC's Hardball -- and delivering the lines
with a straight face and in tones implying righteous indignation
-- Buchanan attempted to single-handedly blame Felt for the
"loss of the Vietnam War" and the deaths of "millions
in Cambodia." In Buchanan's world, leaker Felt caused Nixon's
downfall, which was the falling domino that directly led to
the Khmer Rouge's bloody terror campaign of mass-murder. Show
host Chris Matthews was quick to cut Buchanan off, noting that
Nixon and his aides were to blame for Watergate -- not Felt
-- because they ordered the break-in and cover-up. WEDNESDAY
NEWS UPDATE.
WATERGATE REDUX: Our lead story should come
as no surprise. After more than three decades of anonymity,
the identity of the confidential Washington Post source
known as "Deep Throat" is finally revealed. The identity:
W. Mark Felt, who was the #2 man in the FBI at the time of the
Watergate break-in and had been one of FBI Director J. Edgar
Hoover's preferred choices -- passed over by President Nixon
-- as his successor. |
P2008:
Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO) is continuing to advance
his Bush-bashing, anti-immigration message. This week he told
the Rocky Mountain News the Bush Administration is hiding
documents that show the President's proposed guest worker program
"sparked a surge in illegal immigration last year."
According to Tancredo, "the Administration is playing politics
with border security data." In other P2008 news, we've added
our profile page on potential GOP Presidential candidate 
Harry
Reid (D-NV) has some suggestions for President Bush if he wants
easy confirmation of his future nominee for an expected US Supreme
Court vacancy. Reid said the key to winning an easy confirmation
fight is select a conservative Republican US Senator who would
draw broad consensus support. Specifically, Reid said that US
Senators Mel Martinez (R-FL), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Mike DeWine
(R-OH) and Mike Crapo (R-ID) were all "bright" and "would
be outstanding Supreme Court members." All four come from
states with GOP Governors, meaning that anyone selected to replace
them in the Senate would also be Republican. Reid said he's met
with US Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) to discuss possible
Supreme Court candidates -- but was also pitching the names to
"anyone who would listen." Frist, meanwhile, confirmed
he met with White House officials to discuss possible Supreme
Court nominees -- but he declined to name any of the candidates
he suggested. In past years, US Senate Judiciary Committee Chair
Orrin Hatch (R-UT) expressed an interest in serving on the Supreme
Court, but his name does not appear to be in play these days.
PENNSYLVANIA
(AND DC): This is really an inside-the-beltway story,
but it is also a Pennsylvania campaign item. According to The
Hill, US Senator Trent Lott (R-MS) -- the former US Senate
Majority Leader -- is planning to run for the Senate Republican
Whip position at the end of next year. Current US Senate Majority
Whip Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is expected to move up to the top
spot without opposition after Bill Frist (R-TN) retires from the
Senate in 2006. When that happens, Senate Republican Conference
Chair Rick Santorum (R-PA) -- the #3 Republican in the US Senate
-- is expected to run unopposed for the #2 job of Whip. Lott's
very open lusting -- and strategizing -- for the Whip job implies
he doesn't believe Santorum will be returning to DC after the
'06 elections. In a further sign that Lott is serious on his prospective
return to leadership, it appears he 
P2008:
Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack (D) bowed out of the DNC Chair
race earlier this year against Howard Dean -- despite being urged
to run by John Kerry and others -- because Vilsack said he needed
to concentrate on the remainder of his term as Governor. This
month, Vilsack is singing a different tune. Vilsack was just named
to be the next Chair of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.
Current DLC Chair Evan Bayh (D-IN), who served in the post since
2001, is not seeking another term in order to concentrate on a
possible '08 White House run. The move doesn't mean Vilsack is
out of the P2008 contest -- as Bill Clinton used the DLC as his
Presidential launching pad in '92 -- but it seems he's less likely
to focus on running for President and more likely to position
himself as an influential kingmaker in the race.
P2008
NEWS: US Senator George Allen (R-VA) is on a swing through
New Hampshire. Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen (D) gave a speech
at the National Press Club in DC on Friday, calling for the overhaul
of Medicaid. Bredesen's remarks didn't win Dem support inside
the Beltway, as a spokesman for US Senate Minority Leader Harry
Reid denounced Bredesen for "essentially calling for the
dismantling of the Medicaid system." Speaking of politicians
displeasing their own party, US Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) told
the Nebraska American Legion that the US is losing the Iraq War
for several reasons. According to the Omaha World-Herald,
Hagel said the Bush Administration sent in "too few troops"
to fight the war, terrorists are "pouring into" Iraq,
"basic living standards are worse than a year ago in Iraq
... Allies aren't helping much .... [and] it will all plunge into
another Vietnam debacle ... The point is, we're going to have
to make some changes or we will lose, we will lose in Iraq."
Virginia Governor Mark Warner (D) is making a speaking trip to
Maine, followed in two weeks by a speech in Arizona.
The
mercurial Spencer served as Mayor from 1995 until he was term-limited
out in 2003. Since leaving office, the recovering alcoholic
has worked as a consultant for businesses dealing with substance
abuse issues. "She's beatable. She's liberal, and she
is on the wrong side of many issues," said Spencer. Clinton's
spokesman said she's more than willing to take on whatever
Republican is put forward. Spencer also lashed out at state
GOP leaders for attempting to recruit Westchester County District
Attorney Jeanine Pirro into the contest while ignoring Spencer
and others. The current recruitment effort "looks like
a very dictatorial style. I don't know how you choose a candidate
for such a position without even talking to the Mayor of the
fourth-largest city in the state," complained Spencer.
He suggested Pirro -- who some conservatives oppose for her
100% pro-choice rating from NARAL-NY -- should instead be
steered into the open Attorney General contest, as he plans
to stay in the Senate race.
ARIZONA:
Republicans finally have a real candidate in the race against
Governor Janet Napolitano (D). Former State Senate President
John Greene (R) stepped into the vacuum, after nearly every
recruited candidate passed on the race. The latest blow to
the Arizona GOP came yesterday when it was revealed their
latest recruitment target -- US Surgeon General Carmona --
wasn't even a Republican. Not only is Carmona a registered
Independent, but he has a very sparse voting history. The
Arizona Republic reported that Carmona skipped voting
entirely in 1990, 1992 and 2002 -- and that 2000 was the only
year he ever voted in a primary. He also told the New
York Times this week that he has tried marijuana and
supports expanded stem cell research. On the heels of that
news, Greene jumped into the contest. He's not a top tier
contender -- he lost a primary for Attorney General in '02
-- but he's unlikely to embarrass the party.
strong
in the race next year to succeed term-limited Governor Jeb
Bush (R). According to new independent Mason-Dixon poll, Attorney
General Charlie Crist is heavily favored to win both the GOP
nomination for Governor and the general election. In the Republican
primary, Crist had 41%, State CFO Tom Gallagher was at 23%
and Lieutenant Governor Toni Jennings had 7%. Crist -- who
was the GOP nominee for US Senate in 1998 -- is a solid campaigner
with a warm demeanor and a populist style. Gallagher -- a
GOP centrist-turned-conservative who formerly held two other
statewide constitutional offices -- lost primary races for
Governor in 1986 and 1994. Crist is likely to be backed by
the state's police officers, while Gallagher is expected to
win the endorsement of the state's firefighters. Both men
are strong fundraisers. Jennings, who has yet to announce
her plans for '06, is Bush's hand-picked choice to be his
successor. On the Democratic side, Congressman Jim Davis led
the field with 23%, followed by former State Democratic Chair
Scott Maddox with 12% and State Senator Rod Smith at 4%. In
a general election match-up, the poll showed Crist would currently
defeat Davis by a 41% to 28% vote. [Note: On a purely
personal level, I really like Charlie very much as he's a
nice guy and earnest pro-consumer Attorney General -- and
I've found Gallagher to be an arrogant, vain, insincere politico
in my encounters with him -- but, be assured, I'll still actively
support the eventual Dem nominee. Thus, to help damage the
man who is clearly the GOP's strongest candidate, I'm publishing
this incriminating '04 picture of Charlie and me so that he
can be tarred in what should be a very nasty primary by his
connection to this liberal Dem blogger.]
ALABAMA.
Ousted State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) -- the
self-described "Ten Commandments Judge" -- acknowledged
he's weighing a possible primary challenge to Governor Bob Riley
(R). Moore is a favorite of Religious Right activists. Riley's
support for a massive failed tax hike plan in 2003 left him
rather unpopular with voters. Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley
and embattled former Governor Don Siegelman both intend to seek
the Democratic nomination. Speaking at the Southern Baptist
Pastors' Conference, Moore said: "I'm seriously considering
it ... I wouldn't want to run unless it was God's will."
No official word from God yet on what he wants Moore to do.
independent Mason-Dixon poll of Florida voters shows US Senator
Bill Nelson (D) holding a comfortable lead over challenger
Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R). The results: Nelson-53%,
Harris-36%. The poll was taken shortly after Harris announced
her candidacy, but before word leaked that Governor Jeb Bush
and White House political guru Karl Rove are attempting to
recruit State House Speaker Allan Bense into the GOP primary
against Harris. Now we can all see why the Bush crowd are
intent on derailing a Harris candidacy. In other Florida news,
well placed GOP sources tell Politics1 that Lieutenant Governor
Toni Jennings (R) will soon announce she will not be a candidate
for Governor or US Senator next year. Jennings was Governor
Bush's hand-picked choice to succeed him as Guv next year.
Polls show Jennings lagging far behind Attorney General Charlie
Crist and State CFO Tom Gallagher in next year's GOP gubernatorial
primary. 
According
to new reports in the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle,
Empire State Republicans are actively working to recruit billionaire
businessman and NHL hockey team owner Tom Golisano into the
gubernatorial contest next year. Golisano has lost three consecutive
runs for Governor as the nominee of the Independence Party,
the former NY state affiliate of Ross Perot's now more-or-less
defunct Reform Party. In his last run, Golisano made medical
marijuana legalization one of his most prominent issues and
featured it heavily in TV spots. If Golisano runs, he is likely
to largely self-finance his campaign as he did in his past
runs. According to the newspaper, State GOP Chairman Stephen
Minarik, State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno and Congressman
Tom Reynolds are among those who have met several times with
Golisano to encourage his candidacy. Their actions are also
the latest sign that incumbent Governor George Pataki (R)
does not plan to seek re-election to a fourth term next year
... or that his fellow Republicans simply no longer care what
Pataki plans to do since he's dragged the decision out for
so long. Golisano's spokesperson said he will weigh all his
options and "when the time comes, he'll make a decision."
No
surprise, but US Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) told CBS News on
Sunday that he will run for President in 2008. His first White
House bid -- a disastrous run in 1988 -- ended before the
first primary under the weight of allegations he had plagiarized
extensive portions of his campaign speeches (including purported
autobiographical segments) from other US and UK politicians.
Biden also flirted with an '04 White House run, but decided
instead in 2003 to focus his energies on serving as the ranking
Dem on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. 
1/23
MARINES REDUX: Three months after returning home
to the US, I've received an update from USMC Captain James
Crabtree -- our former 
Jewish,
hold either center-left or liberal political views, are generally
active or well-connected in your community (Jewish community,
political community, business community, etc), and you live
in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, North
or Central Florida, South Carolina or North Carolina, I want
to hear from you. Please 
TEXAS:
US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has decided against challenging
Governor Rick Perry in next year's GOP primary, according
to her campaign manager. Instead, KBH will formally kick-off
her re-election campaign at a rally on on June 27. Polls showed
that Hutchison -- the most popular politician in the state
-- had a good chance of ousting Perry. With Hutchison out
of the race, State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn appears
to be Perry's only major opponent for the GOP nomination.
Former Congressman Chris Bell (D) and country music singer/author
Kinky Friedman (Independent) are also announced candidates
against Perry. Friedman is using the same campaign manager
and media consultant who combined to direct Jesse Ventura’s
successful indy campaign for Minnesota Governor in ’98.
Feingold
suggests the best way to do this is go into all 50 states
and talk about the real problems facing America and the best
way to address them. In a debate on our problems -- the lack
of affordable health care and housing, an unfair tax structure
that gives big breaks to the wealthy, Iraq and the US role
in world affairs, improving education, ensuring justice and
equal opportunity, and so forth -- we need to abandon the
labels of liberal/conservative or left/right and talk about
the specific proposals. Whether we are talking about working
class Republicans in Wyoming, a struggling middle class family
trying to make ends meet in Alabama, or the Hollywood and
East Coast liberals, most Americans struggle to pay medical
bills when a family member becomes seriously ill. They worry
about jobs lost as US companies ship them off-shore. They
worry about personal safety and domestic security. Progressive
Democrats have ideas to address these problems -- good ideas
-- if we can just get people to listen again. It isn't about
lecturing folks in Red States to vote for economic self-interest
over so-called moral issues. We won't win by talking down
to people or treating Middle America with disdain. We, too,
believe in moral values -- and should be willing to talk about
"moral values: -- only I believe we more profoundly believe
in the Biblical values of caring for the poor, protecting
the environment, and doing justice than do the current conservatives.
And we won't rebuild as a truly strong party until we have
a progressive agenda that advances ideas. The culture war"
wedge that harshly divides us today will fade within a few
years -- just as the insane fear of women's equality faded
after the 1970s. It's been nearly 30 years since we;ve heard
a conservative Member of Congress openly denounce women as
"bra burners" and warn of all the terrible things
that would happen if women were protected by equal rights
laws. We may not reach total agreement on everything -- probably
never will -- but as two-thirds of all Americans indicate
in polls they support either same-sex civil union laws or
legalized gay marriage, I'd suggest that "gay issues"
in campaigns will fade into the realm of the non-controversial.
So, how do we win back Middle America? Here's one example
of just how we can do that consistant with progressive principles
of fair taxes (and steal the "tax cut" message away
from the Republicans at the same time): Democrats should propose
a change in the federal tax code that TOTALLY exempts from
income taxes the first $25,000 or $30,000 that every American
earns each year. That will give massive tax relief -- real
tax relief -- to millions of Americans, while ensuring that
the wealthy pay their fair share (think of it as the "fair
dues of responsible citizenship" for those who are most
enriched by our nation's economic opportunities). That's just
one idea of how "we" will re-take control of the
party: by winning Americans (including many DLC and conservative
Dems) to our better ideas. We need to make them buy into our
ideas -- because our ideas are better. Republicans can often
succinctly describe their agenda as "Lower Taxes, Less
Government, More Freedom" (and, in the case of the Religious
Right, tack on the "Family Values" label). In reality,
the GOP record is "Higher Deficits, Less Freedom, America
Hated Around the Globe" -- but the Republicans do a much
better job of marketing than do we. If you don't believe me,
I defy you to describe what the current Democratic Party stands
for in six or eight or ten words. I have a suggestion to start
the debate: "Fiscal Responsibility, Economic Justice,
Individual Freedom, A Stronger America." Yeah, I know
it needs work ... but it could be used to encompass everything
from health care to taxes to equal rights to foreign policy.
Just some more food for thought to keep the debate going.
It's good for our party, and good for America.
TEXAS:
Governor Rick Perry's re-election plans are getting more complicated
these days. He had already been expected a GOP primary challenge
from US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Now it appears that
State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn -- the mother of
Bush White House spokesman Scott McClellan -- will announce
her primary challenge to Perry this weekend. A three-way primary
-- and the certain run-off that will follow -- would be a
wild free-for-all contest. Polling seems to indicate Hutchison
would be the slight favorite in this race. Perry is swiftly
moving further to the right, trying to lock up more support
from Christian evangelicals as he tries to portray KBH as
a DC "moderate." Strayhorn has been openly fighting
with Perry for two years, so her challenge isn't a surprise.
was
long expected, Attorney General Mike Beebe (D) this week formally
entered the open race for Arkansas Governor. Beebe looks to
have a clear shot at the Dem nomination. Retired Army General
Wes Clark (D) -- who once was viewed as a possible candidate
-- appears to instead to focused on preparing for a second
White House run in '08. While Beebe is unlikely to face serious
primary opposition, the opposite is true on the GOP side.
Lieutenant Governor Win Rockefeller Jr. and former Congressman/former
DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson are locked in a competitive
contest. Hutchinson got a setback this week from the State
Ethics Commission, when the board ruled that Hutchinson is
limited in how much money he can transfer from his former
federal campaign account into his new gubernatorial campaign.
Rockefeller -- the son of Arkansas' first GOP Governor --
is viewed as the current frontrunner in the Republican contest.
Governor Mike Huckabee (R) is term-limited and preparing to
enter the 2008 Presidential race.
P2008:
US Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS) told the Topeka Capitol-Journal
that he will honor his previous term limits pledge and not
seek re-election in 2010 to the Senate. "That's what
I said when I first ran, and I intend to stick to that,"
said Brownback. The Kansan confirmed to the newspaper he is
getting an early start exploring a White House run. He's already
made several visits to early contest states and is strengthening
his contacts with the Religious Right political community.
"This is one of those things where I have to have a longer
lead time and do more tilling of the field than several other
candidates would have to do," he explained, because potential
GOP rivals like John McCain and some others are already well
known.
campaigns
are just popularity contests ... well, umm, many races actually
do devolve into 'em ... but SurveyUSA just conducted an interesting
project: concurrent polls in each of the fifty states to measure
the popularity of all 100 US Senators in their home states.
Top on the list was Barack Obama (D-IL) with a 72% approval
rating. The next four on the popularity scale -- with 71%
approval ratings -- were Kent Conrad (D-ND), Pat Leahy (D-VT),
Susan Collins (R-ME) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Three more
also broke the 70% approval mark: Dan Inouye (D-HI), Byron
Dorgan (D-ND) and Jay Rockefeller (D-WV). At the bottom of
the scale -- the US Senator who is singularly least popular
with his own constituents -- was John Cornyn (R-TX), with
a paltry 40% approval rating. The others with approval ratings
of 45% or less were Rick Santorum (R-PA), Jim Inhofe (R-OK),
Mike DeWine (R-OH), Mel Martinez (R-FL), Tom Coburn (R-OK),
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) and Richard Burr (R-NC). Santorum
and DeWine -- at 44% and 43%, respectively -- also recorded
the highest disapproval scores. While much of this is only
of value for fun debates, it is significant to note two of
the "Top Ten" (Conrad, Snowe) and two of the "Ten
Worst" (Santorum, DeWine) face re-election next year.
Governor
Mark Warner (D) told the Richmond Times-Dispatch
that he "wouldn't take formal steps to begin a Presidential
bid until after he leaves office" next January. Most
importantly, the newspaper reported Warner does not plan to
challenge US Senator George Allen (R) next year. Instead,
Warner said he is very interested in a White House run --
but may ultimately decide to run again for Governor in 2009.
While Warner last week filed paperwork to create a federal
PAC, he said he does not plan to launch a Presidential exploratory
committee until after he leaves office in seven months. 
Spitzer
also leads Pirro by a vote of 54% to 21%, and leads a third
possible opponent by an even wider margin. 
I've
got something very important to ask of you folks. Do any of you
have any significant connections to Middlebury College in Vermont?
Professors or Admin? Distinguished alumns? Big bucks donors? Connected
with with any of the above? If the answer is yes, PLEASE drop
me an 
Tim
Kaine (D) and centrist GOP State Senator Russ Potts (Independent)
in November in what is expected to be a very hotly contested race.
Potts qualified this week for the November ballot, while former
Richmond City Councilwoman Shirley Harvey (Independent Green)
failed to secure anywhere near enough signatures for the ballot.
Governor Mark Warner (D) is term-limited. There are also contested
primaries for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. 
Joe
Biden (D-DE) and Mel Martinez (R-FL) are both calling for the
closure of the detention camp at Guantanamo. Vice President Dick
Cheney said Sunday that the Administration is not considering
any plans to close the prison. P2008 - #1: US
Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) is cozying up these days with Religious
Right leader Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family. According
to an email alert message sent out by Dobson to supporters, Nelson
spoke with him by phone and "assured" him that he now
supports the proposed US Constitutional amendment to ban same-sex
marriage. Nelson reportedly says a May federal court ruling that
voided Nebraska's Defense of Marriage law is the reason he changed
his position. According to Dobson, Nelson will also help the Republicans
by supporting "up-or-down votes on all but one of President
Bush's embattled judicial nominees." Nelson is up for re-election
in '06, and told his state's largest newspaper late last year
he was even considering a run for President in '08. A bit of editorializing
here: I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Nelson switches
parties sometime over the next two years (either before or after
he wins re-election) -- not that he's much of a Democrat anymore.
P2008 - #2: Check out samples of the new 
Chair
may have told reporters earlier this week that the party will
clear the US Senate primary field for Congresswoman Katherine
Harris (R) -- but other top Republicans seem cool to the idea.
Governor Jeb Bush told reporters "I don't know if there
will be a primary or not" and repeatedly declined to describe
Harris as "the best candidate" for the GOP against
US Senator Bill Nelson (D). "It's not a question of [if
Harris is best]. It's a question of who's got the guts to run
...She's running, and the Republican Party will support"
whomever ultimately wins the primary, explained Jeb. The National
Republican Senate Committee appears equally cool to a polarizing
figure like Harris. In response to her decision to enter the
Senate race, the NRSC released a written statement saying they
expect the race will "continue to attract the attention
of a lot of candidates." Congressman Mark Foley (R) added
that he was still looking at the Senate seat, and his decision
would not be impacted by Harris' entry into the race. Sounds
like Harris is not Karl Rove's preferred candidate -- but they'll
reluctantly rally behind her if she appears to be the strongest
candidate after filing closes next May. P2008:
In a sign that outgoing Virginia Governor Mark Warner (D) is
considering a 2008 White House race, he just filed paperwork
to open a federal fundraising PAC. He's also hiring staffers
who formerly worked on Presidential races. These moves don't
lock Warner into a Presidential run, as Warner may instead decide
to challenge US Senator George Allen (R) next year. Warner's
term as Governor ends at the end of this year. FLORIDA
#2: US Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Mel
Martinez (R-FL) broke with the White House Friday on some key
foreign policy matters, in comments before a group of newspaper
editors. 
Martinez
-- a former Bush Cabinet member who was elected last year with
the strong support of the President -- called for the closing
of the detention camp at Guantanamo. Martinez said he did not
agree with Amnesty International's recent report that prisoners
were being mistreated. Despite that, the Miami Herald
reported, Martinez called the Guantanamo prison "an icon
for bad news ... and at some point you wonder the cost-benefit
ratio" Martinez broke with the White House on this issue
by going further and endorsing Senator Joe Biden's (D-DE) proposal
that US leaders publicly debate the "enemy-combatant"
policy and close the prison in Cuba. While Martinez likened
the US prisoners to POWs and noted POWs are typically confined
until the end of a war, he added: "It's not very American,
by the way, to be holding people indefinitely." The Cuban-born
Republican also criticized the Bush Administration's poor handling
of Latin American policy. "For the last four years ...
we have not paid much attention and the region is really in
trouble. Our esteem and our influence in the region is lower
than it has ever been," he explained, significantly contributing
to the instability in the region. A Martinez spokesperson later
told reporters that there are "plenty of issues where he
might not walk lock-step with the Administration" but that
the freshman Senator certainly remains "supportive of the
Administration."
Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie (R) and State Adjutant General
Martha Rainville are, respectively, the leading GOP hopefuls
for the open US Senate and US House seats. CALIFORNIA:
Porn star Mary Carey (real name: Mary Cook) is back for another
run for political office in 2006. As an Independent candidate
for Governor in the '03 special election, Carey finished in
the top ten -- out of more than 150 candidates on the ballot
-- garnering 11,000 votes. Carey now plans to run as an Indy
candidate in the open race for Lieutenant Governor next year.
DC: US Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS) has placed
a hold on President Bush's nominaton of Julie Finley to be the
US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe. Brownback -- a likely '08 Presidential candidate
who is closely aligned with the Religious RIght -- opposed Finley
because she is an ardent pro-choice advocate. According to ABC
News, Finley is also "a longtime Bush supporter and Republican
fundraiser." By placing a hold on her nomination, Brownback's
actions will indefinitely deny President Bush an up-or-down
floor vote on Finley's nomination. Perhaps I'm getting a bit
confused these days, but weren't Senate Republicans recently
hot to ensure Senate floor votes for all the President's nominees?
Secretary
of State Ron Thornburgh (R) and State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins
(R) both announced they would not challenge Governor Kathleen
Sebelius (D) next year. That move seemingly left State House
Speaker Doug Mays as the GOP's only likely gubernatorial hopeful.
But then along comes Congressman Jerry Moran (R) -- who was
the early favorite of party activists to oppose Sebelius until
he bowed out last month -- to say he may run for Governor after
all. Moran says people "have encouraged me to make a different
decision. All I've done at this point is tell those folks that
I'll take a look, I'll consider the option of running for governor,"
Congressman Ted Strickland (D) did likewise in Ohio recently:
first announcing he would not run, then doing a 180 and jumping
into the contest a short time later. P2008:
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) is on a two-day swing
through New Hampshire. When asked, Richardson will only officially
say he is focused on his '06 re-election race and not yet thinking
about what comes after that. So, how many New Mexico voters
do you think he's finding in NH? PENNSYLVANIA:
A new Keystone Poll on the hotly contested US Senate race shows
that incumbent Rick Santorum (R) is trailing State Bob Casey
Jr. (D) by a vote of 37% to 43%. That reflects a six-point drop
for Santorum since the same independent poll three months ago.
In the gubernatorial contest, the poll shows that Governor Ed
Rendell (D) continues to lead any of his potential GOP rivals.
The strongest GOP hopeful is retired football player Lynn Swann,
who trails Rendell by eight-points. The other Republicans trailed
Rendell by margins ranging from 10% to 28%.
US
Senator Jon Corzine coasted to an easy landslide victory in the
Democratic primary for Governor on Tuesday, winning with 88% of
the vote over two minor foes. Corzine -- the former Goldman Sachs
chairman -- spent a record $63 million of his own money to win
his Senate seat in 2000. He's made it clear he's willing to again
spend whatever it takes to win the governorship this year. On
the GOP side, wealthy investment executive Doug Forrester appears
to have defeated former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler by a
vote of 36% to 31% in the hotly contested race -- but low turnout
-- race. Corzine has made it clear he's willing to again spend
whatever it takes, if needed, to win the governorship this year.
Forrester is also a mega-millionaire, but not quite as wealthy
as Corzine. Still, it appears the only prize Forrester won on
Tuesday is the right to lose to Corzine in November. P2008:
Bush media guru Mark McKinnon -- who masterminded Dubya's TV strategy
in the '00 and '04 races -- has signed on to do John McCain's
Presidential campaign in 2008. The Dallas Morning News
reported this is the most concrete sign to date that McCain has
already decided on making a second White House run. 
Antonin
Scalia and Clarence Thomas appear to be the frontrunners for
the Chief Justice spot. While there are many, many others I
would much prefer to see as the Chief -- including Justices
Breyer or Souter -- I'm resigned to the reality that it will
be either Scalia or Thomas. That being my Hobson's Choice,
I'd rather have Thomas as the next Chief Justice . While both
are ardent conservatives and purported opponents of so-called
judicial activism, Scalia is intellectually dishonest and mean-spirited.
Here's why I write that. In the Lawrence v. Texas case
in 2003, the Court invalidated state anti-sodomy laws by a 6-3
vote. Yet, two years ago, Scalia sided with the right of states
to ban consensual sex acts. In fact, Scalia went so far as to
write that the Court "has taken sides in the culture war
... largely signed on to the so-called homosexual agenda."
He continued: "The Texas statute undeniably seeks to further
the belief of its citizens that certain forms of sexual behavior
are 'immoral and unacceptable' -- the same interest furthered
by criminal laws against fornication, bigamy, adultery, adult
incest, bestiality, and obscenity." Thomas, by contrast,
agreed with Scalia that it was a states' rights issue and he
could not find constitutional ground to invalidate it -- but
Thomas went so far as to call anti-sodomy laws "uncommonly
silly." He continued: "If I were a member of the Texas
Legislature, I would vote to repeal it." Now let's leap
two years forward to this week's 6-3 Court decision to invalidate
state medical marijuana laws. Thomas, once again, sided with
states' rights and voted to uphold medical marijuana laws. "If
Congress can regulate this under the Commerce Clause, then it
can regulate virtually anything, and the federal government
is no longer one of limited and enumerated powers," wrote
Thomas. While Scalia backed states' rights in '03 when it served
to oppose gay rights, he now embraced a federalism approach
when it served his right-wing agenda's desire to strike down
the medical marijuana initiatives that "further the belief
of its citizens" (to quote the '03 Scalia) in the 11 states
that overwhelmingly approved them. As for being "mean-spirited,"
a review of Scalia's snide and heavy-handed manner during Court
oral arguments more than establishes this fact. Thomas, for his part, sits largely silent during open court sessions. Maybe its just
a kinder, gentler form of the same ideology -- or maybe its
because Thomas viscerally appears to simply be a more decent
human being than the seemingly malevolent and vicious Scalia
-- but, if that's the choice, I'd much rather have Clarence
Thomas as Chief Justice.
Last
minute polls are widely divergent in the hotly contested GOP
gubernatorial contest between wealthy investment executive Doug
Forrester, former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler, and five
others. While several polls showed Forrester moving out to a
double-digit lead, a final Quinnipiac University poll purports
to show Schundler has bounced back and trails by just two points
-- with 31% still undecided. Both Republican leaders have carried
the party's mantle in the past: Forrester was the GOP nominee
for US Senate in 2002, while Schundler was the GOP nominee for
Governor in 2001. The winner will face US Senator Jon Corzine
in November. Corzine and Forrester are both mega-millionaire
former financial executives, so the general election contest
could be rather costly. WASHINGTON: As expected,
a state court trial judge ruled Monday against invalidating
the narrow election last year of Governor Christine Gregoire
(D). The State Republican Party sought to invalidate her victory,
based on allegations of fraud and errors. Despite being urged
to run for US Senate next year, State Senator Dino Rossi (R)
is expected instead to pass on the '06 race in favor of a likely
'08 rematch against Gregoire. 
SUPREME
COURT: The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the federal
government may validly enforce federal drug laws in order to
block state efforts to legalize medical marijuana -- even when
state voters and the state legislature have approved legalizing
the medical use of pot. The eleven states that allow the use
of marijuana for medical purposes are Alaska, Arizona, California,
Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Washington
and Vermont. The ruling was a setback for both drug decriminalization
proponents and states' rights advocates. In an interesting twist,
it was liberal Justice John Paul Stevens who wrote the majority
opinion, joined by fellow liberals Stephen Breyer, Douglas Souter
and Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Two traditional states' rights advocates
-- Justices Anthony Kennedy and Antonin Scalia -- also joined
those who sided with Stevens in support of federal authority
over states on these issues. Stevens upheld the right of Congress,
acting under the Commerce Clause of the Constitution, to regulate
this issue. However, Stevens said any change on this issue should
come from a change in laws at the Congressional level. "Where
necessary to make a regulation of interstate commerce effective,
Congress may regulate even those intrastate activities that
do not themselves substantially affect interstate commerce,"
wrote Scalia, citing New Deal-era cases to support his new federalist
stance. Center-conservative Justice Sandra O'Connor wrote the
dissenting opinion in support of the states' rights on the drug
issue, joined by two conservatives: Chief Justice William Rehnquist
and Justice Clarence Thomas. O'Connor noted that while she did
not personally support the medical marijuana concept,
she believed it was the kind of "experiment" the Constitution
explicitly granted to the states. "If Congress can regulate
this under the Commerce Clause, then it can regulate virtually
anything, and the federal government is no longer one of limited
and enumerated powers," wrote Thomas in his separate dissent.
P2008 #2: Ever since the '92 Clinton campaign,
Presidential candidates have looked for their "Sister Souljah
moment" to demonstrate their so-called "courage"
independence from some of those in their perceived base. This
weekend it was potential '08 White House candidates John Edwards
and Joe Biden who took their shots at DNC Chair Howard Dean
-- trying to find that "moment" -- by indignantly
claiming Dean's feisty populist rhetoric against Tom DeLay and
the Republicans does not speak for them. A brief bit of overt
editorializing here, Senator Biden, but I find it much
more offensive for one to have carried the water in Congress
for the greedy credit card companies like MBNA (to the detriment
of poor, indebted working folks on the brink of bankruptcy).
As for Edwards, his canvassers in Iowa last year deviously savaged
Dean in the closing days before the caucuses by repeatedly claiming
Dean espoused "liberal New York values" -- so this
is nothing new. WEST VIRGINIA: Yesterday we
referred to some NRSC and DSCC polls on a possible Byrd-Capito
US Senate race next year. It turns out there is a new independent
poll, conducted by a state polling firm, that shows Capito just
three-points behind Byrd in a potential matchup. However, two-thirds
of the same respondents said they viewed Byrd favorably. This
race could get interesting.
WEST
VIRGINIA: A Republican-sponsored poll claims eight-term
US Senator Robert C. Byrd (D) could be vulnerable next year
if Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) challenges him. However,
no independent polls yet back this up. The last time the GOP
seriously tried this was approach was in 1982 -- when the NRSC
convinced the state's only GOP Member of Congress (Cleve Benedict)
to give up his seat to challenge the "vulnerable"
Byrd. Byrd walloped Benedict 68%-31%, even though Benedict raised
issues likes Byrd's former role as a "Kleagle" (recruiter)
in the KKK in the 1940s. Not only did Byrd win, but the GOP
was unable to regain a Congressional seat in the state for 18
years until Capito was elected in 2000. Will history repeat
itself again? WASHINGTON: The trial judge will
rule Monday in the Republican Party's lawsuit seeking to invalidate
the narrow election victory last year of Governor Christine
Gregoire (D) based upon allegations of fraud and errors. Based
upon the testimony, most observers expect the judge will uphold
Gregoire's defeat of State Senator Dino Rossi (R). Stay tuned.
NEW JERSEY: Voters go the to polls on Tuesday
in the hotly contested GOP gubernatorial contest between wealthy
investment executive Doug Forrester, former Jersey City Mayor
Bret Schundler, and five others. Polls in recent days show Forrester
substantially widening his lead. US Senator Jon Corzine is expected
to easily win the Democratic nomination over minor opposition.
Corzine will start the general election contest a heavy favorite
over Forrester (or Schundler). Visit our 
Debbie
Stabenow (D) is a safe bet to win re-election, while Governor
Jennifer Granholm (D) may be facing a much tougher fight. According
to the EPIC/MRA poll, Stabenow holds a nearly 30-point margin
in head-to-head match-ups against any of her likely GOP opponents.
Stabenow led conservative minister and former Detroit Councilman
Keith Butler (R) by a 57%-30% vote. She led businesswoman Jane
Abraham -- the wife of the GOP incumbent Stabenow ousted in
2000 -- by a vote of 59% to 30%. Abraham, who is still exploring
the race, told the Detroit News she is "in no
rush" to make a final decision on the race. Stabenow's
other GOP challengers trailed by even wider margins. While Stabenow
had an approval rating of 54% positive - 33% negative, Granholm
scored an anemic 52%-47% approval rating. These numbers may
not help her GOP opponents, however, if President Bush's approval
rating is any indicator: 44% approve versus 55% disapprove.
The poll did not match Granholm against of her GOP opponents,
although 62% said Michigan is "on the wrong track."
CALIFORNIA #1: As expected, President Bush
on Thursday nominated conservative Congressman 
Chris
Cox (R) to become the new chair of the powerful regulatory Securities
& Exchange Commission. A Harvard-educated attorney, Cox
is also a former Reagan White House aide. Cox is expected to
easily win US Senate confirmation, necessitating a special election
in the early fall. The CD-48 seat is safely Republican. CALIFORNIA
#2: Supporters of gay marriage suffered a minor setback
Thursday during the final day the state legislative session.
The State Assembly voted 37-36 to support legalizing gay marriage
in the state -- but the bill still failed because it fell four
votes short of the requisite 41 majority needed in the 80-member
body. That result came about when nearly a quarter of the majority
Democrats either joined with Republicans in opposing the bill,
abstained, or did not vote. Had it passed the House, it was
expected to win support in the Senate. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
(R) is a generally viewed as gay rights supporter, but had not
indicated what he would do had it been approved by the legislature.
In the past and in sharp contrast with Congressional Republicans,
Schwarzenegger has said he believes that judges or voters --
but not legislators -- should be the ones deciding these controversial
social issues. In
related news, the legislature last month solidly rejected bills
that would have explicitly banned gay marriages. As the legalization
bill has the strong support of the Assembly Speaker, proponents
vow to return in the future with the additional votes needed
for passage. DC: According to analysis by 
Felt,
91, admitted his role as DT in an exclusive interview with 
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